Champion Hurdle Preview

We are now seven weeks away from The Festival and the highlight of the card on day one of course is the Champion Hurdle. The only market leaders likely to be seen out before hand are Binocular and Peddlers Cross and it is hard to see the market changing dramatically for the rest of the field before now and then. In fact it's likely to remain similar to what it is now if those two choose to sidestep each other in their preferred prep. When looking through the field below are some points that I feel need covering before going through the runners one by one.

Experience and Age


Experience is something that I feel has been underplayed in the run up to this year's race and personally I feel it is one of the most, if not the most important factor when considering a Champion Hurdle winner. The Champion Hurdle is a unique test with the finest two mile hurdlers from both sides of the seas pitting their talents against each other at an often ferocious pace. It is a much different test to either running around with a good a bunch of inexperienced novices in the Supreme or in a small field prep with a suspect pace.

The age based view is that five year olds are 1-85 in the race since 1985. However, I think far more important is experience which is usually closely linked to age. Katchit has been the one exception to the five year old year in the past 25 years, this can probably be explained by the fact that he'd had gained a lot of experience with 16 flat starts and was also very heavily raced for a five year old over hurdles with 12 runs.

So looking at it from an experience point of view the last 10 winners had all had at least 15 career starts (8 of them over 21). Also the only winner to have had less than 10 starts over hurdles was Sublimity in the 2007 renewal.

This leads to big questions mark over Menorah and Peddlers Cross.

C+D form and Topspeeds

As I've mentioned the Champion Hurdle is a unique test and the fact that 7/11 winners had run in the race before shows this. Outside of those Katchit and Rooster Booster were course specialists and had both put very good TS (157 and 154 respectively) over the C+D, so it was clear they were suited by the conditions of the race.

8 of the last 10 winners had put up a TS figure of 150+ over C+D, so this is also one of my first ports of call when looking for a Champion Hurdle winner. Below are the market contenders who have run over C+D and the respective TSs

Khyber Kim	165
Binocular	163
Walkon	153
Menorah	149
Starluck	149
Dunguib	141
Silviniaco Conti	139
Oscar Whisky	139
Soldatino	137

 
As can be seen the only qualifiers are Khyber Kim, Binocular and Walkon. However, perhaps Menorah can be excused as he clearly loves the course and is 3/3 over C+D. The fact that Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross have never run over C+D has to be a negative to their name.

Grinders vs Travellers

This is something that first came to my attention when reading Paul Jones' very useful Cheltenham Festival betting guide last year. As he says punters generally as he say prefer the potential superstars over the solid less flashy contenders and so value often arises. Grinders going by the results in the past have a better record especially when the going comes up softer than G/S. Last year however, it was two travellers, Binocular and Khyber Kim who came to fore. One reason for this could be the moving of the final flight to the winning line which would have aided their cause, also we must remember that the ground was quicker than normal on the opening day last year.

The Main Contenders

Binocular - 4.3

The most solid horse in the whole field who has experience and obviously excels at the course with a strong pace. Trained by the master 2 mile hurdle trainer Nicky Henderson he is the most likely winner and should take all the beating. He was given a very easy ride by McCoy first time out this year behind Peddlers Cross and in fact jumped to the front at the last before fitness told. Back to somewhere near his best last time he put up a polished display with his electric jumping on show to all. The only problem is it is hard to see much mileage being left in his price compared to be what it will be on the day. All the other market contenders have big fan bases and for that reason his price should remain pretty steady and it's hard to see him being shorter than 5/2f on the day. The one way his price has potential to go is out if he is beaten by Peddlers Cross at Sandown. However, this personally wouldn't be much of a worry as it is likely to be run not to suit him and it is unlikely Nicky Henderson will have him fully wound up. It must be remembered Punjabi and Binocular both ran relatively lacklustre races in their preps for him before taking the Champion Hurdle a short while later.

Hurricane Fly - 5.8

The likeliest contender to the throne but seems to represent little value. One worry is obviously what a fragile horse he is and their is plenty of time for him still to miss the race. He's missed the last 2 festivals and in fact he even had a bit of a blip over Christmas with a cut leg. I'd much rather take 4/1 on the day than the 9/2 available now on Betfair. Also what has been noted in his last two races is his slight tendency to jump to the right. One forumite has noted that this can often be an indication of favouring a particular foreleg and if he is feeling paining in either one this is likely to be exaggerated at Cheltenham on quicker ground than he's used to. The big negative is of course he has no course form.

Other slight worries would be the quicker pace, as although the pace seemed fair at the weekend he still registered a relatively low top speed figure in the 120s. Also although some people reject this point totally he's by Montjeu who's yet to sire a Cheltenham winner and whose progency often flatten out when they reach the hill. Also the fact that Ruby Walsh might take the ride, strange though it seems, could be a slight negative as he's only ridden him once since May 2008. For these reasons the 9/2 available now seems a poor price.

Menorah - 6.6

The big caveat for him is as I have already mentioned he is still a very inexperienced horse when it comes to Champion Hurdle winners, with only 8 hurdle starts and 9 lifetime starts. This was shown in Supreme Hurdle last year with his jink coming to two out. This year he has obviously improved, but his jumping was a bit sticky in places in the Greatwood and this can't happen if he's to stand a chance in this. It can also be argued he's beaten nothing of Champion Hurdle class yet. In his novice career his big scalps were Bellvano, Get Me Out of Here and Dunguib - who have all shown nothing so far to suggest their up to Championship quality. This year he beat Bothy and a bunch of other second season hurdlers in the Greatwood, before beating two very inexperienced horses in the shape of Cue Card and Silvianco Conti in the Bula. Another negative for him is that the last 16 winners all ran in the same calendar year. It was also said that he had a potential chasing career this season which doesn't fill you with confidence. For me he's an unlikely winner and hence the 11/2 available is a poor price.

Peddlers Cross - 6.8

Like Menorah short on experience with only 6 lifetime starts. He's dropping back from a novice career over further like multiple winners Istabraq and Hardy Eustace but they had far more experience than him at his point of their respective careers. Looking at the Newbury run as well I'd take Binocular to turn around the form, and the second that day Starluck was comfortably put in his place by the champion next time. The fact that he's only run 6 times to date and that he's never run over C+D alone means that his price of 11/2 in what looks a competitive renewal should not be touched either. He obviously falls into the 'grinder' mold, though on quick ground I just can't see him getting Binocular off the bridle. First time out this year to my eye Binocular traveled all over him before blowing up. Also it must be remembered Celestial Halo is a very good horses over 2 miles on ground thats not soft, going into the race last year he'd posted 4 RPRs of at least 165 (higher than anything PC has ever achieved) over the trip and yet he could get not get Binocular over the bridle or nowhere near him.

Others

Briefly I see it hard to see why Dunguib and Oscar's Whiskey should turn around the form with Menorah. Also the former has had a very interrupted campaign this year which would be a worry and the latter is still very inexperienced for such a test. Mille Chief is another one with major experience worries with only 6 hurdle starts and 11 in his career and coupled with his lack of C+D form the 16/1 available wouldn't tempt me one bit for a horse beaten off handicaps mark of 136 in his first two starts this year. Khyber Kim would be tempting on the day if he turns up at a big price. His first run this year can perhaps be forgiven as T-D horses are often a bit in and out at this time of year. However, there is now talk of him being aimed at the World Hurdle and it's hard to see where the improvement would come as a 9 year old. On the plus side though he was a clear 2nd last year and perhaps softer ground could bring him closer to Binocular. One to keep an eye on.

The Dark Horse

The one who seems massively overpriced to me at this stage is Walkon. With C+D form he is 3rd in the TS table behind the short priced favourite and a 9 year old. However, at 6 he still has massive potential to improve. He's had 14 starts, which is one short of the 15 (Should have prep in Totesport Trophy in fortnight though) I required earlier, but still way more than market principles Menorah and Peddlers Cross, and at 50/1 on BF he can be forgiven.

He obviously has a liking for the course and his Triumph form has been franked since by Zaynar, Mourad and Starluck. Zaynar traded as favourite for most of the season in last year's Champion Hurdle and through Zaynar and Starluck he has between 6 and 9lbs to find with Binocular based on their runs in last years Champion Hurdle. He opened up nicely this year when second at Ascot over the weekend off a mark of 148 in a very competitive race, showing his engine still remained in tact. Also connections said after the race he ran much better than they expected him to and he looks sure to come on plenty for the race. Alan King's horses have been coming only very nicely for their first run this year with Karabak, Mille Chief, West End Rocker and Blazing Bailey for example coming on 6,19,8 and 36lbs respectively on RPRs for their first runs. This all gives a very big indication he can runs to mark at least in the mid to high 160s and so his price seems massive value at the moment. He's goes on any ground and it could also be said the race could be run to suit with the McCain connections making to look it a tough test to suit their horse too.

Horses to keep any eye on in the run up to the festival: Novice Chasers

1. Rock Noir - Arkle Chase (33-1 SJ, 41-1 BF)

(Lifted from previous post)


One I'm very keen on, and who I completely missed out in my first write up is Rock Noir. He fits the bill in that he was a classy hurdler, Grade 1 winner in France. Then JP McManus apparently forked out a fortune for him to come over to these shores. Such was the regard that he was held in that he was 2-1 favourite for a competitive handicap at Ascot on a saturday (think Beshabar won it?), when the odds came out midweek, before not making the race. This was off a handicap mark of 152. He then ran first time out in the County off 152 and was backed into 9/1 third favourite, so they obviously think a lot of him. He was disappointing here, but O'Neill's are notoriously not great first time out (excuse also for first time out this year).

Since embarking chasing, he has two electric runs to his names and two poor runs. However, there are possible excuses for those two failures. First time it was his first run for a while, and as I have said O'Neill's (especially this season) usually need the run. He then won next time out beating Phidippides. Phidippides is held in high regard by Evan Williams and was a 140 rated hurdler, yet Rock Noir brushed him aside with ease, winning in a time only about 3 and half seconds slower than the Haldon Gold Cup (and he was carrying 8lbs more than the winner). He then ran a shocking race at Bangor, stopping quickly next time out. However, that was only 8 days after his win at Exeter, and being a headstrong type (fitted with a cross noseband these days), it could be that he takes more out of himself in races than we think).

His most impressive win then came after a nice break to freshen up, when absolutely bolting up at Warwick in a decent time. He beat two 140 rated hurdlers (Keki Buku and Qozak) giving them 7lbs by 7 lengths in what RP described as a 'canter', if that form is taken anywhere close to literally, then it's one of the best runs by a novice so far this season. There are also reasons why he can improve more. Firstly his jumping is going from strength to strength (very good after he warmed up at Warwick) after being poor in his first run. Also being a french import, it may be he's only starting to acclimatise after coming over from france, often horses coming over from France do take a while to settle.

Some people may worry about this being his target (also priced up in the new Jewsons) but with Bellvano flopping for JP yesterday, and both him and O'Neill having no other obvious contender (GMOOH?) he will hopefully be targeted at the race. Also if he was being aimed at the 2.5 miler at the festival, I don't see why they would not run him a day later in the Dipper and not Sway? Hopefully from here he will go to the Kingmaker back at the same C+D he was so imperious at same time, before heading to the Arkle. This would fit in nicely to his schedule, giving him a 5 week break either side of the race. At the 50/1+ on Betfair he has to be of interest.

2. Shalimar Fromentro - Currently not quoted for anything - Novice Handicap Chase would be my guess or RSA?


One that has probably skipped many people's imagination is the highly unexposed 5yo Shalimar Fromentro trained by Nick Williams for his wife, Jane. Like many of Williams' young horses he seems to be bringing him along very slowly. He started him off in fact in the Grade 2 Persian War Novices' Hurdle at Chepstow, the fact he started him off in such a high quality race would indicate he thinks a lot of the horse. He put in a disappointing run finishing 5th of 8 beaten 40l. He then put in another disappointing run when making his debut over fences over 2 miles. However, on his next start when stepped up massively in trip to 3 miles he put in a great performance when going down 1/2l to Wymott. That was a very hot race that day with horses such as Adams Island, Definity, Fronteir Dancer and Flight Leader trailing in behind. Shalimar Fromentro was given a very very kind ride to put it lightly, slowly creeping into the race only being got at it when it was too late after the last. It would be suggested that given the way he was ridden connections were worried about the trip, and there could be a different result if the race was run again. It must be also noted that this was at a time at which Nick Williams' horses had been badly held up by the weather and many had been running badly, so for him to run such a big race at this time must surely be a sign of the massive ability that he must have. He has been allocated a mark of 131 after the race, which could look very tempting for connections given the esteem Wymott is held in. Nick Williams' french imports are known to progress steadily throughout the season. The novice handicap chase could be right up his street at the festival, with a generous makr of 131 he should get a proper racing weight and given a more forceful ride over a slightly shorter trip he would definitely run a big race.


3. Beshabar - RSA Chase (20-1 VC, Sporting, 69-1 BF) or Novice Handicap Chase (?)

A very lightly raced 9yo with only 8 lifetime starts still under his belt. Formerly trained by Paul Nicholls for Harry Findlay, it's interesting that he's one of the few horses that Harry still has in training. A very talented hurdler when right, at the end of last season he was rated 149. Both chase starts have been plagued by jumping errors especially first time out at Cheltenham this season. After making a mistake at the first ditch he trailed at the back of the field, but after travelling poorly he came back on the bridle coming down the hill. Set to run a big race, he was then bought down 2 out when Chicago Grey fell in front of him, leaving Christian Williams no chance. Considering the winner Wayward Prince is much shorter in the betting for the RSA the 70s on Betfair seems a fair price if his jumping problems can be ironed out. More interestingly perhaps though is the Novice Handicap Chase, as he has now be given a mark of 138 (11lbs below hurdle rating). He won 2 competitive handicap hurdles (Grade 3 and Class 2) around that trip over hurdle last year (one off a 4lb higher mark) so the trip should suit. In fact taking out his first time out runs each season his form is 15111. If as I say his jumping problems are sorted he must run a massive race off 138 if he takes his chance in that race.


4. Stagecoach Pearl - Arkle (66-1 Betfred, 74-1 BF)


Not an obvious Arkle winner by any stretch of the imagination, coming through the handicap system, but this ultra progressive sort has run an RPR only third to Ghizao and Finian's Rainbow in the division, and as far as I can tell his topspeed of 146 for his Haydock run is miles clear of anything else. His last run was his most impressive after rallying after being headed. That day he beat Tara Royal by 15l giving it 7lbs and Smack That by 27l lengths giving it 17lbs. Tara Royal time before was only 12l behind Wishful Thinking giving it 6lbs! And similarly through Smack That, Stagecoach Pearl is a 15lb better horse than Tullamore Dew (who was only beaten 2l by Medermit, and has won his other 2 chase starts). The horses behind him that day and the time suggest this was a great run and he should not be underestimated at huge prices. He loves quick ground (why he's been put away over winter you'd imagine), though perhaps the Aintree 2 mile race might be more up his street given he's won over C+D before.


5. Royal De La Thinte - RSA (33-1 PP, 35-1 BF)

A horse who has come through the PTP field, having won his last 2 starts in that sphere at the beginning of 2010. He ran a very nice race first time out this season when going down by 7l to Bostons Angel at Down Royal. That form has been franked in no uncertain manner with the winner taking a Grade 1 over christmas. The third that day has also won since, with the trio pulling a further 29l clear of fourth. He then putting in an even better performance when stepped up to 3 miles on his second start this season, when hosing up by 10l to Alpha Ridge who would have loved the heavy ground (rated 135 over fences at the moment, buts rated 151 over hurdles). One thing that his stood out about Royal De La Thinte so far is his jumping, which would be a great asset to take to Cheltenham if connections decide to take up an engagement. However, he is only 6 at the moment, so connections could choose to pass it this year and stay in Ireland.


6. Peveril - RSA (25-1 freely available, 25-1 BF)


Perhaps not as dark a horse as the others, given his connections, but he still seems to have been relatively unmentioned by pundits for the RSA so far. A strapping sort,he was rated 139 at the end of his hurdling career. This included 3 wins last year (including beating the very useful Court In Motion giving him 3lbs), with the only defeat when coming 4th in the Martin Pipe Conditional Hurlde race at the festival off a mark of 138. An excellent jumper of hurdles, he possess a physique that was always likely to mean that he would come into his own over fences this season. Interestingly, connections started him off the same way as the very useful Burton Port (whom is also in their care). After trailing in a 24l third behind Grand Crus at Haydock in the fixed brush hurdle (Burton Port finished 2nd to Diamond Harry in the 2009 renewal) he then made his fencing debut at Folkestone on January 2nd. After taking a while to warm up he jumped well at the end pulling 5 lengths clear of Cannington Brook with ease. Cannington Brook isn't a bad sort, having only been 8l behind Wayward Prince two starts before at Cheltenham, and was also Grade 1 placed over the smaller obstacles. If as expected, he progresses, he looks sure to take high rank among the 3 mile novice chasers this season.

Horses to keep any eye on in the run up to the festival: Novice Hurdlers

Below are a list of six horses that I have compiled that are worth keeping a close eye on in the run up to the festival to see if they can develop into serious contenders for the championship races. They are all relatively unhyped horses who, in my opinion, have put up better performances than either the press or bookmakers have given them credit for.

1. Gibb River - Supreme Novices (25/1 VC, SJ)

An above average sort on the flat who was rated 85 at his highest and ran at Royal Ascot at one point. Since then he has been moved to Nicky Henderson. He's won 2 out of 2, with the most impressive performance coming last time at Plumpton under a penalty. They went off a real gallop in the race and many struggled to get into it. By the end of it he had won easily by 7 lengths to Mr Muddle (who was recieving 17lbs). Third was Extremely So (beaten 10l get 7lbs) who had seemed a nice sort when winning first time out at Folkestone at big odds, those 3 pulling a further 15l clear of the field. He was then entered up at the 5 day declarations for the Tolworth last weekend, but was pulled out at the overnight decs, with the stable running Minella Class instead. Minella Class duly bolted up as is now 12s for both the Supreme and the Neptune. Gibb River was presumably pulled out because of the ground, having shown better form on a quicker surface on the flat. It most be a positive that the stable were willing to enter him into the race alongside Minella Class, meaning they probably think him to be of roughly a similar class.

2. For Non Stop - Neptune (89-1 BF), Alber Bartlett (39-1 BF)

Slightly less exposed than Gibb River having already ploughed his trade in handicaps and having already run in a Grade 1. Since joining Nick Williams he hasn't looked back. He first bolted up at Chepstow in what Nick Mordin described as a pattern class time. He then stepped up in class at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. He could only come 2nd to Grand Crus, but since then that horse of course has bolted up again and is now rated 32lbs higher (158) with the Cleeve hurdle next on its agenda. That race has had many winners come out of it. For Non Stop was given an RPR of 140 for that, but it could be argued given the exploits of the rest of the field it should be a bit higher. Over the same C+D the Neptune in recent years has alternated between very classy renewals (Peddlars, MDH and Nicanor) to the not so (Fiveforthree, Massinis Maguire and No Refuge).

This years looks like it could be falling into the latter category, with no obvious superstar around at the moment. In those 3 renewals the winners all achieved RPRs in to the high 140s. The fact For Non Stop has already achieved an RPR of 140(+) at an early stage in the season over the C+D suggests that his price is way to big. Since then, he was backed into favourite for the Challow Hurdle. He travelled well before tiring late on into 4th. However, it should be noted that Nick Williams has said in the build up to that he missed a vital bit of work, so there is obviously plenty to come from that. Interestingly, Nick Mordin suggested he might be better over 3 miles, so there is every chance he could step up in trip for the Albert Bartlett.

3. Gagewell Flyer - Neptune (40-1 SJ)

An average sort in bumpers for Willie Mullins achieving an RPR of 110 in all 3 starts. Since the beginning of the season he hasn't looked back though with 2 wins. He won nicely first time out over 2 miles, before being stepped up in trip for a grade 2 at Naas last week. This time, he was far more impressive and could have won by much further than the official distance of 4l. The second, Fists of Fury, had won first time out before coming 2nd in a grade 3 next time and the third, Pineau De Re had finished second to Zaidpout in a grade 1 last time. Both suggesting this is a strong bit of form. An uncomplicated front runner, he looks sure to put up a bold performance wherever he turns up next.

4. Sonofvic - Albert Barlett (25-1 365, Tote, 31-1 BF)

Trained by Paul Nicholls, he is a half brother to the stable's Forest Pennant, and a full brother to Aiteen Thirtythree. He's only had one run so far when winning at Chepstow in November. He won very easily and the form has since been franked by the placed horses. Ohio Gold, is a solid sort and was only beaten 3l by 150 rated chaser Ballabriggs this weekend. More importantly, the second Teaforthree, Won well next time out before being beaten only 3l in a grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. Sonofvic hasn't been seen since but that's not surprising as the trainer said after that he needs time between his races and wouldn't be out to around christmas. Both his siblings improved when stepped up to 3 miles, so there is every chance he could do so. However, if he goes to Cheltenham you'd imagine he'd only have one more start which would leave him very inexperience. Also his siblings were both backwards sorts and both have missed Cheltenham Festivals, so there is every chance connections may wish to do the same with him.

5.  Oscars Well - Albert Barlett (16-1 freely availbale, 17-1 BF), Neptune (20-1 freely available, 22-1 BF)

Has already achieved an RPR of 148, which as I have already mentioned is enough to win a 'poor' Neptune. Since stepping up in trip he's won 2/2 over hurdles. Winning nicely at Punchestown before stepping up to Grade 1 company at Navan. This time he was even more impressive, scoring in a nice time easily by 8l. Second was Sweet Shock, who won a handicap hurdle of 119 the time before (now 125), suggesting this was a 140+ performance. The third, Fully Funded, beaten 19l had won a Grade 2 hurdle easily last time over C+D, suggesting also Oscars Well is a proper sort. On that form I think he should be near the top of the markets he's priced up in. However, the one worry would be all his form is on softer ground than he is likely to meet at the festival if he takes up an engagement.

6. Mossey Joe - Albert Bartlett (25-1 365, PP, SJ, 21-1 BF)

Put up an astonishing performance at Cork when winning a Grade 3 in mid December. After pulling hard early on he still won by 9l without being anywhere near extended. All the horses he beat were no mugs with 4 winners behind him. Since then the second, Fists of Fury, was beaten by a shorter distance by Gagewell Flyer in a grade 2. Also amazingly, his trainer said he wasn't even fully fit yet. He then ran 16 days later behind Mourad at Leopardstown when stepped up to open class. He once again travelled very well before finding nothing. However, given his trainer said he wasn't fit 16 days previously it's unlikely he would have been then with the cold snap and perhaps his previous race had taken far more out of him than before. If that run is forgiven, then he is one of the best prospects in the novice hurdle devision at the moment. One thing that I particularly like about him is his jumping which is usually foot perfect as he skips over them very quickly. Having won already on good ground in a hunter chase, he is sure to play a big part if he runs at the festival.

Arkle Chase - Mid Season View

We are now half way through the season proper, so I thought I'd take a look at the Arkle Chase now most the main contenders have had a chance to strut their stuff.

I had a very early look at this race in september on my other blog;

(http://extremeconviction.blogspot.com/2010/09/2011-arkle-chase-very-early-view.html)

As can be seen from there, I've found that in this race it is best to focus on those with classy hurdles form.  My shortlist of three there were Finian's Rainbow, Captain Chris and Muirhead. Unfortunately I selected Muirhead and not Finian's Rainbow as my main selection. Muirhead won in very workmanlike fashion first time out before disappointing next time. However, although many people may be tearing up their slips on him, I wouldn't say all hope on him is lost yet. Both those runs have been on very soft ground, and it is expected he will be a much better horse on the quicker spring ground. He's still entered in the Irish Arkle in a couple of weeks time which is encouraging, and it is hoped if the ground is slightly quicker he'll put up a much improved effort there. At the moment I'd say Finian's Rainbow is the most likely winner in the field, but at 6/1 with only one win in a 3 runner chase under his name it's hard to say he represents real value.

Ghizao - One to take on

One I would be keen to take on is Ghizao, for a few reasons. All though some people argue it's not relevant, as he's showed improved form over fences, I firstly can't have him because of his hurdles form. He's rated 135 over the smaller obstacles, which is somewhere below the usual standard of an Arkle winner and was humped out of sight when stepped up to a Grade 1 at the festival last year. Another worry is the ground, there is more than a suggestion that he needs cut, with his 3 disappointing efforts all being on officially good ground since going over hurdles. If we get ground similar to that we had at the 2010 festival or slightly slower, I would worry about him.

Also he's never produced that decent a time in his career with his highest topspeed being 128. 8/10 winners have achieved at least 141 before their festival wins. The exceptions being Well Chief on 130 and Azertyuiop 138. Of course, these two went on to become great 2 mile chasers, but I just can't have the below top class hurdler Ghizao turning into one of the 2mile Champions in years to come. Finally, the only Arkle winner in the last 10 years to lose his first chase (Moscow Flyer - Fell fto, won next) was Contraband who came 2nd in a listed chase first time out.  Ghizao was said not to be fit, first time out, but for an Arkle winner in waiting, you'd expect him still to be able to beat Kilmurry when not fully fit.

Of the Irish contingent who ran in the grade 1 at Leopardstown over christmas, I would take the winner, Realt Dubh out of all of them. The faller at the last, Saludos, was going equally as well as him but connections have said he needs soft ground which he is unlikely to get at the festival. Torphichen and Noble Prince would both worry me on the class front, and more importantly their liking for the course, Torphichen has disappointed twice at the course and Noble Prince flattened out like many Montjeus when hitting the hill last year in the County Hurdle. Realt Dubh on the other hand has a great record over 2 miles (taking out first time out runs) 212121F11. Only being beaten by Luska Lad (shd) Cousin Vinny and MDH. Also he's shown he can get a bit further so looks tailor made for the race, aswell, as already running a thoroughly decent time. Through Loosen My Load, he also has superior form to Ghizao, yet he's a much bigger price.

Rock Noir

Another one I'm very keen on, and who I completely missed out in my first write up is Rock Noir. He fits the bill in that he was a classy hurdler, Grade 1 winner in France. Then JP McManus apparently forked out a fortune for him to come over to these shores. Such was the regard that he was held in that he was 2-1 favourite for a competitive handicap at Ascot on a saturday (think Beshabar won it?), when the odds came out midweek, before not making the race. This was off a handicap mark of 152. He then ran first time out in the County off 152 and was backed into 9/1 third favourite, so they obviously think a lot of him. He was disappointing here, but O'Neill's are notoriously not great first time out (excuse also for first time out this year).

Since embarking chasing, he has two electric runs to his names and two poor runs. However, there are possible excuses for those two failures. First time it was his first run for a while, and as I have said O'Neill's (especially this season) usually need the run. He then won next time out beating Phidippides. Phidippides is held in high regard by Evan Williams and was a 140 rated hurdler, yet Rock Noir brushed him aside with ease, winning in a time only about 3 and half seconds slower than the Haldon Gold Cup (and he was carrying 8lbs more than the winner). He then ran a shocking race at Bangor, stopping quickly next time out. However, that was only 8 days after his win at Exeter, and being a headstrong type (fitted with a cross noseband these days), it could be that he takes more out of himself in races than we think).

His most impressive win then came after a nice break to freshen up, when absolutely bolting up at Warwick in a decent time. He beat two 140 rated hurdlers (Keki Buku and Qozak) giving them 7lbs by 7 lengths in what RP described as a 'canter', if that form is taken anywhere close to literally, then it's one of the best runs by a novice so far this season. There are also reasons why he can improve more. Firstly his jumping is going from strength to strength (very good after he warmed up at Warwick) after being poor in his first run. Also being a french import, it may be he's only starting to acclimatise after coming over from france, often horses coming over from France do take a while to settle.

Some people may worry about this being his target (also priced up in the new Jewsons) but with Bellvano flopping for JP yesterday, and both him and O'Neill having no other obvious contender (GMOOH?) he will hopefully be targeted at the race. Also if he was being aimed at the 2.5 miler at the festival, I don't see why they would not run him a day later in the Dipper and not Sway? Hopefully from here he will go to the Kingmaker back at the same C+D he was so imperious at same time, before heading to the Arkle. This would fit in nicely to his schedule, giving him a 5 week break either side of the race. At the 50/1+ on Betfair he has to be of interest.

Also I would not write off Medermit yet. He jumped and travelled much better in the Dipper, and if they dropped him back to two miles it wouldn't worry me as he's shown a strong run 2 miles is right up his street. However, he is nowhere near a certain runner so can't be advised as a bet yet.

Horses to keep an eye on big prices


. Rock Noir
. Realt Dubh
. Muirhead
. Medermit

Cheltenham Festival 2010 Review - Conclusions

1. Be wary of novices that have shown jumping frailties over the winter. For example this year Dunguib, Captain Cee Bee, Bensalem, Petitfour, Punchestowns and Long Run had all made many mistakes in their season so far.

2. Hurdle form is often relevant to chase form at the festival. Sizing Europe became the top rated hurdler in the field to win the arkle for 6 of the last 10 years. Also Chief Dan George and Copper Bleu in the Handicap Chases were running off lower marks than they would have over hurdles.

3. The quicker ground at the the festival can catch out some horses as well as being a positive for others. For example this year short priced favourites Master Minded and Garde Champetre did not enjoy it, whereas, Chief Dan George, Weapons Amnesty, Great Endeavour and Albertas Run all improved massively for it.

4. Horses who have shown form around their current handicap mark recently should alaways be looked at. For example, Spirit River was going very well before nearly coming down in the straight in the Tote Gold Trophy, yet was allowed to run here off the same mark. Similarly Buena Vista and Pause and Clause both ran great races at the festival the year before, and were allowed to come back and race again off the same mark.

5. French 4 year olds have a great record in the juvenile events at the festival, as shown this year by the winning double Soldatino and Sanctuaire.

6. The use of aids should always be looked at aswell, both for the first time and the reapplication of. Copper Bleu won one of the handicaps with a first time tongue tie, and Buena Vista had his blinkers back on for the first time since his gallant second 12 months previously in the pertemps.

7. Value as always is the name of the game. This year looking through either collateral form or handicap marks there was obvious value in the markets. Imperial Commander and Bertie's Dream both had run races within 2lbs of the favourites in their races, yet were 10x the price. Likewise, Albertas Run wasn't the highest rated, but there were obvious reasons why the horses above them wouldn't run to form and as such was always going to be value at the starting price of 14/1.

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 1

Supreme Novices

Menorah defeats Getmeoutofhere in the 2010 Supreme Novice Hurdle

Winner -  Menorah

. Impressive Winner at Kempton

. Last race was a muddling one - easily forgiven

. Already relatively battle hardened compared to other fancied rivals (Dunguib/Oscar Whiskey)

. Strong Pace was sure to suit

Failure - Dunguib

. Not a fluent hurdler on what he had shown

. Quicker ground for the first time over hurdles.

. Inexperienced Jockey

Conclusion - Like 2009 failure Cousin Vinny, Dunguib was the second horse in a row to be a short price all winter whilst still showing jumping frailties and then fail at the festival. A horse who has shown they can hurdle fluently whilst ALSO putting in solid performances over the winter against decent yard sticks is always a good place to start. The two most obvious contenders on that basis this year were Menorah and Getmeoutofhere who filled the first two places.

Arkle Chase

Sizing Europe Clears the Last

Winner - Sizing Europe

. Imperious in Novice Chases that season

. Proven he'd stay a bit further

. Always looked like he'd be a bit chaser than hurdler

. Good course form

. Looked sure to be suited by the better ground

. Top rated hurdler in the field

Failure - Captain Cee Bee

. Old for a novice chaser

. Hadn't looked the best jumper

. Had no form over further than 2 miles

. Broken blood vessels before

Conclusion: Sizing Europe became the highest rated hurdler in the field to win 6 of the last 10 runnings. He'd been imperious over the winter in novice chasers and the quicker ground could only suit him even more. Captain Cee Bee may well have been beaten him over the christmas period, but as they say fences are there to be jumped and he'd made a similar mistake at the last in his prep run.

William Hill Chase

Chief Dan George holds on from The Package

Winner - Chief Dan George

. Came out near the top of trends lists

. A spring horse, always seems to come alive at this time of year

. Quicker ground than he'd race on all year round was set to suit him. Trainer said after his last win on soft ground "He's a spring horse, and though he loved heavy ground over hurdles, he needs decent ground to help his jumping over fences"

. Was running off 142, at his peak he was rated 155 over hurdles

. In his last run he beat Tamarinbleu who was running off 145 (but rated 167 at peak) and they pulled 23 lengths clear

. In one of his few chase runs on good ground he beat Sa Suffit by 3l (rated 152 at the time of cheltenam) and Razor Royale by 17l (rated 149)

Failure - Bensalem

To be fair most of the fancied horses ran well in this race, so even though he was going well when he fell you'd have to put Bensalem down as a failure as it was his jumping that was always going to cause a problem.

He'd never a) run in a chase with more than 5 runners and b) run in a handicap chase, so considering he'd already fallen once and not looked fluent on other occasions it will always going to be a big ask for him to jump around against an experienced field. However, the way he travelled off his mark and his subsequent defeat over hurdles at Punchestowns suggest he should be able to take a big handicap chase this winter off a similar mark.

Conclusion: This race once again proved that you want to be looking for a horse that will improve for the quicker ground at cheltenham - other obvious examples this year would have been Weapons Amnesty and Great Endeavour. You could also say that like the Arkle, hurdle form to a degree is relevant as on hurdle form Chief Dan George would have been clear pick at the weights. Also although you should be looking for something unexposed in the field, you should be looking at something thats jumped round in big fields before without mistakes as at Cheltenham pressure will always be put on your jumping due to the pace the races are often run at and the course itself.

Champion Hurdle

Binocular Bounces Back

Winner - Binocular

One of ones that in hindsight it's easy to see why it should have been seriously considered and was massively overpriced at 9/1, though at the time was easily dismissed by most people (including me) due to the fact he hadn't shown much that season. Below are some reasons why it should have been considered though.

. Why were they running him? It was all but ruled out a fortnight or so before the race, so surely there must have been some drastic change in him for them to then let him take his chances

. He was a short priced favourite as a 5 year old and did incredibly well to get that close as such an inexperienced horse. It's highly publicised that 5 year olds don't have a good record in the race, so to get so close (even if disappointing to some) only enhanced his claims as a 6 year old.

.The movement of the final flight was always going to suit his running style more

Failure - Go Native

Go Native was the obvious failure but this has been put down to his mistake he made at the second. In hindsight there's still no reason to doubt why he was a short price, as he's always jumped extremely well in the past and had held all before him on his last two starts. 

Conclusion: Look at those that go close as 5 year olds and come back as 6 year olds, was a key thing to take from this race, as Binocular became the second winner in a row to place as a 5 year old and come back as a 6 year old to win it. In that respect Zaynar is the one to take from the field this year but he looks like he'll take the stayers route next season. Another 5 year old Starluck never got into it this year, though he was only 3l away from the placings. The trainer reported after his prep run that he wouldn't be the finished article until next season, and although he'll doubtful be good enough to challenge Binocular next season, the 40/1 available now EW with the bookmakers could well look a big price by Christmas with a lot of question marks around his rivals. This race also confirmed that course form is always key at Cheltenham, with the winner having placed at 2 festivals, the runner up having won his last 2 starts at the course, as had the third.

Cross Country Chase

A New Story takes the Cross Country Chase from L'Ami

Winner - A New Story

No Obvious reason why it should win even with the benefit of hindsight. Pricewise did select it at 40-1 though, with the reasoning having something to do with he'd just run his best race over hurdles for many years. Also had a featherweight, though he had been hammered every time he'd run over the course and distance, including by 40l off a lower mark last year.

Failure - Garde Champetre

. The quicker ground was a possible reason for doubting him. His form on good ground since he took to fences was 250F191 compared to 412291121111 with cut in the ground.

. His mark was also getting extremely high and horse on past run should have beaten him at the weights for example L'ami was 4lbs better off for under a 2 length defeat last year.

. Though in the end it could have been his mistake at the Aintree fence that cost him.

Conclusion: Bit of a turn up to be honest, suppose once again just showing course experience over this unique course is a big positive. I have mentioned already we should be looking for horses that will improve for the better ground at the festival, well we should also be looking for horse who won't (for example Masterminded aswell)

Mares Hurdle

Quevega takes the Mares Hurdle for the second year running

Winner - Quevega

. Had won the race last year by 14l

. Had won every season first time out since being moved to Willie Mullins

. Had the best form in the book on all types of ground

Failure - Voler La Ledette

. Inflated rating came from a defeat of Go Native. Although a very good performance, should not have been as highly rated as it was, as Go Native would have hated the ground

. Most her form was over shorter than the 20f trip. Over 20f she had flopped once and the other time had won but it was neither anywhere near some of her other form or near what Quevega had achieved in the race last year.

Conclusion: These two were miles clear at the top of the market and the only conclusions to possibly draw from this are that once again course form is always a massive positive and also stick with horses with form over the distance.

2010 Cheltenham Festival Review - Day 2

National Hunt Chase

Katie Walsh celebrates after taking the National Hunt

Chase Under Poker De Sivola

Winner - Poker De Sivola

. Although many people would have seen it as a negative - he was a second season novice which means he had more experience than many in the field. He had had 11 runs in chase before including in races such as the FWKM here the season before and the Irish National, meaning he would have been far more streetwise than much of the opposition

. He had always been seen as a chaser by his connections judging by the comments on the RP database. He was heavily gambled into 7/2f by the shrewd stable in this FWKM last year, surely meaning they thought he was far better than his mark of 130.  The average winning performance in this race in the previous 10 years from a handicapping point of view had been 138. Him going off 7/2f in such a competitive event surely means connections were confident off him being upto such a mark. Only 5 of the field were rated 138 or above (an none over 141) in this year 's field - so it was clearly a very open race.

. When he was unplaced in the FWKM he was noted as travelling sweetly, Nina Carberry came back in after and stated the ground was far too tacky for him. This year however, it was officialy good not good to soft - so you'd think he was sure to improve.

. He had course form when coming 2nd in a handicap hurdle at the April Meeting

. If you'd have taken out his runs right handed (clearly doesn't go - 4683609) he has a remarkably good record - with 14 runs, 5 wins, 5 places.

Failure - Petitfour

. Hadn't jumped well in his 3 previous chase starts (incl. one unseat) - always look for something proven in the jumping department. If he can't jump well in small novice chases, it's doubtful he will at the festival.

Conclusion

. Experience can never be a negative as a novice chaser in these big fields. On the other hand don't go with a horse who has been jumping poorly over the winter in smaller field novice chases.

. Perhaps look at market moves in previous race - to see if a horse has been fancied to be much better than his current rating when conditions fall right

Neptune Investment Management Novice Hurdle

Peddlers Cross clears the last

Winner - Peddlers Cross

. Had won a grade 2 race on his previous start by 16l - which according to racing post ratings - was the second best performance in the field (behind Reve De Sivola's 2nd to Tell Massini in November). The second was 132 rated Scriptwriter. Taking the form literally then he would have been a 150 horse on that performance, a mark good enough to at least place in most runnings

. Having gone through the PTP field and being NH bred the step up in trip would have been thought to bring further improvement. His combination of speed and stamina was always going to be perfect for such a race

. 9 of the last 11 runners had been ex-bumper horses rather than ex-flat horses

Failures - Rite of Passage and Finian's Rainbow

. Both these were flashy types who had looked like they could achieve more than they already had. However, Finian's Rainbow had looked a bit of a baby so far that season, also added to the fact Henderson's dreadful record in the race (0 from 20, nothing better than 10th since 1990!) he always looked a bit short. Rite of Passage had looked good but had come up against nothing and the hill was always going to be a question mark for him.

Conclusions

. Take form over potential in such a demanding race. Reve de sivola/Peddlers Cross had it in the box and Rite of Passage/Finian's Rainbow did not.

. Look at trainer's records in certain races. Nicky Henderson has a poor record in this race, perhaps because he is sent to buy horses that are likely to outclass their opponents not outslog them and this is not usually a race where a horse saunters home on the bridle. He's always been none for his hurdlers over the minimum distance (great record in triumph and champion hurdle) rather than those over further

RSA Chase

Weapons Amnesty Sails the Last

Winner - Weapons Amnesty

. Had won 1/1 at the course when taking the Albert Bartlett the season before

. He was always going to improve for better ground as he had the previous season and being a son of Presenting.

. Had amassed more experience over British obstacles than his market rivals

. The fact that he was only just beaten over an inadequate trip and on soft ground in his prep, suggested he would run a massive race here

Failures - Punchestowns and Long Run

. Long Run - Only a 5 year old and also had a jockey who would usually have a claim of 5lbs.

. Punchestowns - Reasonably unexperienced with 2 runs over the larger obstacles and his jumping had not looked upto scratch last time. Also he was lame in the week before the race and was a big doubt.

Conclusions

. Course form is important

. Experience in novice races and efficient jumping is a must

. Inexperienced jockeys are a negative. Jockeys like Geraghty, McCoy and Walsh are worth their weight in gold at the festival

. Horses' who have had an interrupted prep and missed some work should also be stayed away from

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Big Zeb takes the Queen Mother with a

disappointing Master Minded behind

Winner - Big Zeb

. Was always thought to be an extremely talented horses but the one thing that set him back time and time again was his jumping. However, this year he hadn't fallen and had jumped well in the main. He jumped left at Sandown - so it is possible the switch back to a left handed track helped him also.

. When he had completed his form over the minimum was 1121411. That 4th was in the tingle creek when he was never apparently travelling and the 2nd was to Master Minded at Punchestown. The fact he really should have beaten MM today should have been a massive pointer to him being at least a value selection at 10/1 (compared to MM 4/5f)

. Trainer Colm Murphy was stated as saying 'he's at least a stone better on better ground' after one of his wins on soft ground over the winter in Ireland.

Failures - Twist Magic and Master Minded

. Twist Magic - Had disappointed at the track many times before and duly did it again.

. Master Minded - Obvious excuse to put forward is the ground. He's a horse obviously suited to cut and this was only his second run on good ground. On his first start he was comfortably beaten by VPU at Aintree. Ruby Walsh came in after and reported that he hadn't let himself down on the ground when asked to quicken

Conclusions

. Look for those who will improve for quicker ground, as well as those who won't improve for the ground

Coral Cup

Spirit River pings the last

Winner - Spirit River

. Had won over the course in November

. Was running a big race off the same mark in the Tote gold trophy before nearly falling, so looked capable of his current mark.

Failure - Deutschland

. Hard to win with - only 2 from 15 over hurdles

. Didn't have any form off such a handicap mark or anywhere close

. Trip was always going to be a slight question mark over such a strong course/strong pace

Conclusion

Look for those who have form around there handicap marks but aren't exposed - for example Spirit River was obviously running a massive race in an equally competitive race off the same mark the race before. Another later example is Thousand Stars, who was 'travelling like a winner' according to RP in his start before the county yet was only off a 1lb higher mark. Also Thousand Stars was allowed to run off a mark very similar to his Irish one, whereas usually his counterparts are hiked 7lbs or so by the British Handicapper.

Fred Winter

Ruby Walsh becomes the winning most festival jockey

Winner - Sanctuaire

. Heralded from the top combination of Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh

. Was heavily backed in

. Had won easily first time out beating a 126 rated horse, Grand Crus - and with only one run under his belt in Britain always had a chance to be ahead of the handicapper

. He was a french bred who have a great record in this race with 4 of the last 5 winners. This is because they are generally believed to mature at a younger age. This season they had 7 runners, 4 of which finished in the top 5 of the field

Conclusion

Follow French breds in juvenile hurdlers as they generally mature younger than their british counterparts 

Champion Bumper

Cue Card Routs the 2010 Champion Bumper Field

No obvious conclusions from this race or reasons for winner/flops