Much better day today with Buena Vista and Albertas Run coming in, also Aimigayle ran a cracking race.
2pt E/W Denman 7/1
1.5pt E/W Rose of the Moon 18/1 (top 5)
1.5pt E/W Shoreacres 12/1 (previously posted)
0.5pt E/W Keki Buku 28/1
Will probably have a few bob on Tea For Three at a massive price aswell 75s/16s on betfair at the moment.
Thursday, 17 March 2011
Wednesday, 16 March 2011
Day 3 Preview
0.5pt E/W Buena Vista 20/1 (top 5 places ladbrokes)
1pt Win Lush Life 14/1
1pt E/W Albertas Run 13/2
1pt E/W Aimigayle 33/1 (top 5 places betfred)
Total for day +26.85
1pt Win Lush Life 14/1
1pt E/W Albertas Run 13/2
1pt E/W Aimigayle 33/1 (top 5 places betfred)
Total for day +26.85
Tuesday, 15 March 2011
Day 2 preview
To be honest tomorrow isn't a day I feel like getting involved in. Have a few fancy prices but not many make much appeal at the current prices. Don't have time to do a brief write up tonight but below are those that make limited appeal at the current odds.
0.5pt E/W Pearlysteps 18/1
0.5pt E/W Captain Americo 28/1
1pt E/W Oscars Well 4/1
2pt Win Big Zeb 3/1
0.5pt E/W Sizing Europe 9/1
1pt E/W Arcalis 25/1
2pt Win Knight Pass 8/1
1pt Win Divine Rhapsody 12/1
Total for day -5.4pts
0.5pt E/W Pearlysteps 18/1
0.5pt E/W Captain Americo 28/1
1pt E/W Oscars Well 4/1
2pt Win Big Zeb 3/1
0.5pt E/W Sizing Europe 9/1
1pt E/W Arcalis 25/1
2pt Win Knight Pass 8/1
1pt Win Divine Rhapsody 12/1
Total for day -5.4pts
Monday, 14 March 2011
Day 1 Preview
Sorry I can't go into more detail but below are my brief overview of tomorrow's races.
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The curtain raiser is of course the Supreme Novices. Whichever way I look at this race I always seem to come to conclusion that Cue Card is more than a fair price at the 11/4 (BOG). For me personally he is a totally different proposition to Dunguib and Cousin Vinny. He's already shown he can jump and his form is rock solid with the older horses when he supposedly wasn't even 100% fit. Take him to get you off to a flyer even if the break of 94 days is a bit of a worry. You can almost come down to him on default with big worries for most of the field. Sprinter Sacre (experience), Zaidpour, Magen's Star, Marsh Warbler (ground) and he holds Al Ferof and Dunraven Storm on all known form. Recession Proof is still only rated 137 by the handicapper which leaves him with 21lbs to find still. Spirit Son is respected but at the prices I'd much rather take a horse who's been there done that before.
3pt Win Cue Card 11/4
Arkle
Another tight race and one that I wouldn't have to big a bet in at the current prices. I've backed Medermit at 9/2 and it's debatable how much mileage there is in his price at around 3/1. Finians Rainbow didn't impress me or many others last time and Ghizao I think will just lack the class to win such a race. Similar applies to Realt Dubh and Captain Chris needs to go right handed. Rock Noir was another horse I've mentioned in this blog previously but at the prices now I'd leave him alone due to ground/jumping errors. Medermit is bomb proof and at 3/1 is worth a small investment if you haven't backed him already.
1pt Win Medermit 3/1
Spinal Handicap Chase
If you haven't seen below I've done a big write up and I'm still more than happy with Adam's Island who was advised at 33s (top price 18s). Wolf Moon came out near the top of stats and has scraped into the race but the price has totally gone on him at 16s now. One that interests me near the top at a big price is Fair Along. He runs off a much lower mark than hurdlers and ran a nice race last time when 3rd behind Noland and What A Friend last time. However, the slow pace didn't suit him last time and he finished well. He has a great record on the Old Course and at 25/1 I think he makes massive each way appeal. Also the ground and big field will be right up his street.
0.5pt E/W Adams Island 33/1
0.5pt E/W Fair Along 25/1
Champion Hurdle
Another race that I've got a big write up on below. Menorah I can't have as to be honest I don't think his form is up too much and he is still inexperience for such a test. Peddlers Cross also doesn't strike me as a Champion Hurdler (see below). However, I am coming around more to Hurricane Fly and as many people say if there is one super star in the field it is likely that it will be him. For me the three to concentrate on are Khyber Kim (only one I've backed so far ante post), Dunguib and Hurricane Fly. Khyber Kim's price has gone and I wouldn't touch him now at 12/1 considering he's now getting on and had a poor first run this year (even if there were excuses).
Now Hurricane Fly has actually made the race I think that if he handles the track and occasion he should win. However, Dunguib seems to have been forgotten and perhaps he can spring a minor shock. He was only 2l behind Menorah last year when taken very wide and there's no reason why he should be 3x the price in my book. He had had a very hard season last year before the spring festival and comes into the race much fresher this time. Of course jumping is a worry but I reckon he's worth a small bet at 10/1
Hurricane Fly 1pt Win 4/1
Dunguib 0.5pt Win 10/1
Cross Country Chase
As can be seen from my post below on the cross country I'm mega keen on Maljimar, although I said back then 14/1 should be taken, as a bet I didn't officially advise it. So to be fair when calculating my results I'll only take his price as the 8/1 now available. However, I still think at 8s he's a more than fair E/W price and although I won't be topping up personally if you haven't got any on I'd advise still having a bet. Since I've placed my bet it has come out connections are very keen on him and that he has schooled superbly. I can't see him being out of the frame with a clear round
2pt E/W Maljimar 8/1
Mares Hurdle
Quevega should win but can't be advised at odds on. No bet.
Centenary Novice Handicap Chase
Another race where I took an early view. This time on Definity, however, like Khyber Kim I think the value has gone in his price at 7/1.
One I'm keen on though at a massive price is Glenstall Abbey who has a JP plot written all over him. He has some very good hurdle form firstly. He only finished a length behind Bertie's Dream and 7l behind Donnas Palm. The run however that most takes my eye is his win at Navan. He beat Quito De La Roque by 3l giving it 7lbs (won a grade 1 since) and third was 20l behind Bostons Angel (won 2 grade 1s since). Since going chasing he has won 2 out of 3, winning his first two on decent ground before coming 3rd as favourite in a Grade 3 on his final chase start (softer groud). Last time out he ran in a hurdle and he was never in the race at all. He is usually up there with the pace but this time he was held up and gave the outside to noone. He stayed on well beating tiring horses in the straight but he wouldn't have had a hard race at all. He has a great record fresh (if you take out his 'schooling' run last time he is) and he makes appeal at 33/1 each way.
Another one that took my eye was American Trilogy even if Nicholls' isn't keen on him. He's got his handicapper mark going right handed and he is much better this way round.
0.5pt E/W Glenstall Abbey 33/1
0.5pt E/W American Trilogy 18/1
-4.5pts for day... Would have been up but for a late non runner to make XC only top 3 and not 4!
Supreme Novices Hurdle
The curtain raiser is of course the Supreme Novices. Whichever way I look at this race I always seem to come to conclusion that Cue Card is more than a fair price at the 11/4 (BOG). For me personally he is a totally different proposition to Dunguib and Cousin Vinny. He's already shown he can jump and his form is rock solid with the older horses when he supposedly wasn't even 100% fit. Take him to get you off to a flyer even if the break of 94 days is a bit of a worry. You can almost come down to him on default with big worries for most of the field. Sprinter Sacre (experience), Zaidpour, Magen's Star, Marsh Warbler (ground) and he holds Al Ferof and Dunraven Storm on all known form. Recession Proof is still only rated 137 by the handicapper which leaves him with 21lbs to find still. Spirit Son is respected but at the prices I'd much rather take a horse who's been there done that before.
3pt Win Cue Card 11/4
Arkle
Another tight race and one that I wouldn't have to big a bet in at the current prices. I've backed Medermit at 9/2 and it's debatable how much mileage there is in his price at around 3/1. Finians Rainbow didn't impress me or many others last time and Ghizao I think will just lack the class to win such a race. Similar applies to Realt Dubh and Captain Chris needs to go right handed. Rock Noir was another horse I've mentioned in this blog previously but at the prices now I'd leave him alone due to ground/jumping errors. Medermit is bomb proof and at 3/1 is worth a small investment if you haven't backed him already.
1pt Win Medermit 3/1
Spinal Handicap Chase
If you haven't seen below I've done a big write up and I'm still more than happy with Adam's Island who was advised at 33s (top price 18s). Wolf Moon came out near the top of stats and has scraped into the race but the price has totally gone on him at 16s now. One that interests me near the top at a big price is Fair Along. He runs off a much lower mark than hurdlers and ran a nice race last time when 3rd behind Noland and What A Friend last time. However, the slow pace didn't suit him last time and he finished well. He has a great record on the Old Course and at 25/1 I think he makes massive each way appeal. Also the ground and big field will be right up his street.
0.5pt E/W Adams Island 33/1
0.5pt E/W Fair Along 25/1
Champion Hurdle
Another race that I've got a big write up on below. Menorah I can't have as to be honest I don't think his form is up too much and he is still inexperience for such a test. Peddlers Cross also doesn't strike me as a Champion Hurdler (see below). However, I am coming around more to Hurricane Fly and as many people say if there is one super star in the field it is likely that it will be him. For me the three to concentrate on are Khyber Kim (only one I've backed so far ante post), Dunguib and Hurricane Fly. Khyber Kim's price has gone and I wouldn't touch him now at 12/1 considering he's now getting on and had a poor first run this year (even if there were excuses).
Now Hurricane Fly has actually made the race I think that if he handles the track and occasion he should win. However, Dunguib seems to have been forgotten and perhaps he can spring a minor shock. He was only 2l behind Menorah last year when taken very wide and there's no reason why he should be 3x the price in my book. He had had a very hard season last year before the spring festival and comes into the race much fresher this time. Of course jumping is a worry but I reckon he's worth a small bet at 10/1
Hurricane Fly 1pt Win 4/1
Dunguib 0.5pt Win 10/1
Cross Country Chase
As can be seen from my post below on the cross country I'm mega keen on Maljimar, although I said back then 14/1 should be taken, as a bet I didn't officially advise it. So to be fair when calculating my results I'll only take his price as the 8/1 now available. However, I still think at 8s he's a more than fair E/W price and although I won't be topping up personally if you haven't got any on I'd advise still having a bet. Since I've placed my bet it has come out connections are very keen on him and that he has schooled superbly. I can't see him being out of the frame with a clear round
2pt E/W Maljimar 8/1
Mares Hurdle
Quevega should win but can't be advised at odds on. No bet.
Centenary Novice Handicap Chase
Another race where I took an early view. This time on Definity, however, like Khyber Kim I think the value has gone in his price at 7/1.
One I'm keen on though at a massive price is Glenstall Abbey who has a JP plot written all over him. He has some very good hurdle form firstly. He only finished a length behind Bertie's Dream and 7l behind Donnas Palm. The run however that most takes my eye is his win at Navan. He beat Quito De La Roque by 3l giving it 7lbs (won a grade 1 since) and third was 20l behind Bostons Angel (won 2 grade 1s since). Since going chasing he has won 2 out of 3, winning his first two on decent ground before coming 3rd as favourite in a Grade 3 on his final chase start (softer groud). Last time out he ran in a hurdle and he was never in the race at all. He is usually up there with the pace but this time he was held up and gave the outside to noone. He stayed on well beating tiring horses in the straight but he wouldn't have had a hard race at all. He has a great record fresh (if you take out his 'schooling' run last time he is) and he makes appeal at 33/1 each way.
Another one that took my eye was American Trilogy even if Nicholls' isn't keen on him. He's got his handicapper mark going right handed and he is much better this way round.
0.5pt E/W Glenstall Abbey 33/1
0.5pt E/W American Trilogy 18/1
-4.5pts for day... Would have been up but for a late non runner to make XC only top 3 and not 4!
Saturday, 12 March 2011
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase
The second handicap I've got properly stuck into and one I think that represents one of the best betting propositions in handicaps of week at the moment.
The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. In some races at the Festival like the FWKM and Pertemps older horses often bounce back but this is not the case in the Grand Annual.
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. In some races at the Festival like the FWKM and Pertemps older horses often bounce back but this is not the case in the Grand Annual.
2) Weight/ OR
a) OR 134 or below
a) OR 134 or below
b) 10st 11 or below
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights.
3) Runs
a) Max 3 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 12 Chase starts
c) Max 4 two mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
4) Course
a) Proven can handle the track.
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights.
3) Runs
a) Max 3 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 12 Chase starts
c) Max 4 two mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
4) Course
a) Proven can handle the track.
Course form is always said to be key at Cheltenham and this race is no exception.
5) Distance
a) Won over 2 miles
b) Best RPR over 16/17f
c) Shown form over slightly further
Much like the Arkle you want a horse who has both top form at 2 miles but has also shown that they can stay a bit further.
6) Wins
a) Not won a handicap chase
b) Not won a class2+ chase
Interestingly 7 of the last 10 winners had not won a handicap chase before and 8 of the last 10 winners had won a chase no higher than Class 2. So I would slightly favour horses who have shown their hand in such races yet.
7) Lifetime
a) Won a class 2 or placed in Class A.
8) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
9) Handicap Mark
a) If run in handicaps before, not running off an all time high mark
The only horse in the last 10 years to be running off a higher mark than they ever have before (apart from those making handicap debut) was Fadoudal Du Cochet who was running off 1lb higher. However, this was in a race in Ireland and considering Irish horses are usually rated higher by the English handicapper you could say that this doesn't qualify as being a 'higher' mark.
The Results
A relatively strong stats race with 8 of the last 10 winners scoring 13+ out of 15. The two exceptions were St Pirran and Fadoudal Du Cochet who both won Grade 2 over hurdles and were running off 130 and 131 respectively. There doesn't seem to be anything of that quality lurking down the weights in this year's renewal.
14 - Pepe Simo
13 - Shoreacres, Keki Buku
Novices have won 11 of the last 29 renewals (including last 2) and all 3 of these fall into that category.
Selection: Shoreacres - 1.5pt E/W 12/1
Of three the most solid option is Shoreacres and I still feel there's plenty of mileage in his price of 12/1. He was a very smart bumper performer with the pinnacle of his career being a 4th in the Champion Bumper beaten just under 9l. He performed to a similar standard during his hurdle career culminating in a 12l defeat in the Supreme Novices once again showing his liking for the course.
He's taken a while to get his act together over fences but there has been definite promise in his last 2 starts. On his final start last year he fell when going far better for Tanks For That off level weights (gets 7lbs now) and this year he opened up with a 28l win at Taunton. That day he beat a 140 rated chaser Qozak (4/4 at Taunton before that defeat) with a further 60l defeat back to the 3rd. He was only raised 2lbs for that to a very generous mark of 135 which leaves him off a feather weight of 10st 3 at the moment. Also his trainer Brendan Powell has come out and said he was only 80% fit that day. The fact that AP looks to retain the ride alone means that it is likely he'll be far shorter come race day.
He's an unexposed novice chaser (former smart novice hurdler) who's shown a liking for the course and runs off a feather weight with the Champion Jockey on board. To me that sounds like a Grand Annual winner in a nutshell and should be much nearer favouritism. He's my largest bet so far in the handicaps along with Junior in the Kim Muir at 16s and 12s.
I wouldn't put anyone off Pepe Simo at 16s and Keki Buku at 25s but there has to be jumping worries over the former and I just think Shoreacres has a touch of class more than Keki Buku.
Tanks for That is a horrible price being as short as 5/1. He's best fresh and has had a 48 day break which is more or less the same as he had when he flopped last time. Even so he's still up 7lbs for a defeat when everything was ideal for him that day. Shoreacres looked like he was going to beat him at Plumpton yet he's twice the price. I just can't understand his position at the top of the market at all (only won 1 out of 8 over fences) and is surely just there because of his trainer.
Similar thoughts apply for Anquetta who may have just shown his hand a bit too much in his last two starts with back to back handicap wins. I'msingingtheblue needs a flatter track to be seen at his best (get him in the Red Rum at Aintree please). The Irish pair of Lastoftheleaders and Peak Raider are respected but I really don't see too many horses that can trouble Shoreacres.
Wednesday, 9 March 2011
Spinal Research Handicap Chase
With the five day entries out today and the field sizes quickly diminishing I thought it was about time I got stuck in properly into some of the big handicaps. During the festival I will be putting up selections for all the races while trying to go into more detail on the handicaps mainly due to time constraints as I'll be at the course all week. Below is my preliminary summary of the the Spinal Research Handicap Chase. Similar to my blog for this current national hunt season the initial whittling down will be done from a stats based approach.
The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
b) Improving RPRs throughout the season (Allow a novice with fluctuations)
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. So either I'd look for a horse with improving RPRs or a novice.
2) Age
a) Age 7 - 10
6 year olds have a shocking record in the race as the stamina test is usually too much for them at such an early stage in their careers. Also those that are aged over 10 are likely to be very exposed and so not open to much improvement.
3) Weight/ OR
a) OR 143 or below (10 of the last 10 winners, 15 of the last 20 placed horses)
b) 11st 3 or below, pref 10st 12 or below (10/10, 16/20)
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights. For example a horse rated 150+ hasn't won in 28 years. 6 of the first 7 home last year were rated 143 or below.
4) Runs
a) 2-4 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 11 Chase starts
c) Max 5 three mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
5) Course
a) Cheltenham experience is a plus, though not necessarily good form. The last 10 winners had the following form over the course 8470/021129/236/22P40/-/P4F/1/3PF03/5213/-/.
6) Distance
a) Won over 24f+
b) Best RPR over 24f+
Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time.
7) Wins
a) Won current season
b) Won a handicap unless a novice
Obviously you want a horse in great form, if it can win earlier in the season it probably can't win in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival.
8) Season form
a) Placed in class A or won Class 2 (Unless a novice)
b) Top 3 LTO, preferably won
You want form in top races, not many horses graduate from run of the mill class 3/4 handicaps to Cheltenham festival winners
9) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
10) Field Size
a) Won in 16+ field
It is likely we'll be faced by a maximum field of 24 for the race and so you want a horse who's shown they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field before.
The Results
This is an extremely strong stats race with 9 of the last 10 winners scoring 14+ out of 17. The only failure was 50/1 winner Joe's Edge who had dropped quickly down the weights that season and was running in the Gold Cup 12 months previously. There's nothing of his calibre low down the weights this year so I'd definitely be looking for something that meets a score of 14+.
17 - Wolf Moon
16 - Definity
15 - Skippers Brigg, Adams Island
14 - Blazing Bailey, Carole's Legacy, Quantitativeeasing, Den of Iniquity, Frankies Anson
Quantitiveeasing and Definity look unlikey runners, Den of Iniquity and Frankie Anson I doubt would have the class. Blazing Bailey is up against it off his new mark but he will no doubt run a very solid race. Skippers Brigg I would have question marks about the trip and with quick ground it's unlikely his trainer will let him take his chance also.
Wolf Moon come out top but he's 6lbs out of the weights and also has a 5lb penalty to carry; so he'll have to run off a 11lb higher mark than he was initially allocated for the race. However, he has great course form and seems to be slowly getting his act together to could be of interest if he creeps into the race. Carole's Legacy is also interesting but she's a bit higher up in the weight than a usual winner and also still holds an entry in the Mares Hurdle.
Selection: Adams Island - 0.5pt E/W NRNB 33/1
The horse I've come down on at the prices is Adams Island who should be roughly half the price in my book. Being a pointer he was always going to come into his own over fences but started of well in a National Hunt Flat race winning by 13l after being well supported throughout the day. Then on his first hurdle start he beat Aiteen Thirtythree by 6l who of course has gone on to much better things since. Following a few disappointing hurdle starts (went off favourite against Wymott in a grade 2 on only his second start) he was sent over fences this season.
He has looked progressive and opened up with a 12l defeat at Aintree. However, that was only over 20f and when stepped up to 3 miles next time he showed his true colours winning by 6l. Next time out he ran another great race at Exeter (proving he can handle a Undulating track) being only beaten 5l by Wymott off level weights (if you add riders claim back on). The form of the race has worked out very well with Wymott, Shalimar Fromentro and Definity franking the form since.
Since the turn of the year he's had 3 starts. The first was at Doncaster when he beat Mostly Bob giving him 6lbs. Mostly Bob has won over C+D since in handicap pointing to Adams Island run being worth something around the 140 mark. The third Lake Legend has also won since and the useful On Borrowed Wings was miles behind in 4th. He was then upped to open handicap and was made 4/1f in the race Blazing Bailey won at Ffos Las, that day he showed up well for a long way before his jumping let him down. The experience should have done him the world of good and he came back with a nice performance in the Pendil behind Captain Chris. Giving Captain Chris 4lbs he was only beaten 13l which in the context of a handicap off 133 is pretty solid form. The race was also over 20f and stepped back up to 24f there has to be more improvement to come. He looks genuinely progressive and is definitely going the right way (especially if his jumping holds up).
Also it must be noted his 5lb conditional is likely to be back on which will mean he will run of a feather weight of 10st 1. It must be noted conditionals have a good record at the Festival, for example off the top of my head Buena Vista and Great Endeavour won with riders taking weight off last year, as did Something Wells the year before. The one worry is it is thought he may need things to go his own way which he is unlikely to get but in the hope his jumping is improving the price of 33/1 seems value for a horse with form tieing in with Captain Chris and Wymott. Novices have a great record in this race (3 of last 7 winners) yet he seems to have gone relatively unnoticed. Also the moving of the 2nd last into the home straight this year could also be seen as a slight positive for front runners as it should suit them more, as shown by Little Josh in this years Paddy Power.
Another one worth considering at a big price would be CRESCENT ISLAND. If you took out his last run he'd score the necessary 14+. The reason I say this is that he hasn't gone well RH before and has infact run out twice. Back to a LH track he looks sure to improve. The form of his win this year has been working out impeccably and too he has placed at the festival before when 3rd in the 2009 Jewsons (7 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 4 at the festival before). He still has multiple entries though.
The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
b) Improving RPRs throughout the season (Allow a novice with fluctuations)
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. So either I'd look for a horse with improving RPRs or a novice.
2) Age
a) Age 7 - 10
6 year olds have a shocking record in the race as the stamina test is usually too much for them at such an early stage in their careers. Also those that are aged over 10 are likely to be very exposed and so not open to much improvement.
3) Weight/ OR
a) OR 143 or below (10 of the last 10 winners, 15 of the last 20 placed horses)
b) 11st 3 or below, pref 10st 12 or below (10/10, 16/20)
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights. For example a horse rated 150+ hasn't won in 28 years. 6 of the first 7 home last year were rated 143 or below.
4) Runs
a) 2-4 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 11 Chase starts
c) Max 5 three mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
5) Course
a) Cheltenham experience is a plus, though not necessarily good form. The last 10 winners had the following form over the course 8470/021129/236/22P40/-/P4F/1/3PF03/5213/-/.
6) Distance
a) Won over 24f+
b) Best RPR over 24f+
Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time.
7) Wins
a) Won current season
b) Won a handicap unless a novice
Obviously you want a horse in great form, if it can win earlier in the season it probably can't win in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival.
8) Season form
a) Placed in class A or won Class 2 (Unless a novice)
b) Top 3 LTO, preferably won
You want form in top races, not many horses graduate from run of the mill class 3/4 handicaps to Cheltenham festival winners
9) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
10) Field Size
a) Won in 16+ field
It is likely we'll be faced by a maximum field of 24 for the race and so you want a horse who's shown they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field before.
The Results
This is an extremely strong stats race with 9 of the last 10 winners scoring 14+ out of 17. The only failure was 50/1 winner Joe's Edge who had dropped quickly down the weights that season and was running in the Gold Cup 12 months previously. There's nothing of his calibre low down the weights this year so I'd definitely be looking for something that meets a score of 14+.
17 - Wolf Moon
16 - Definity
15 - Skippers Brigg, Adams Island
14 - Blazing Bailey, Carole's Legacy, Quantitativeeasing, Den of Iniquity, Frankies Anson
Quantitiveeasing and Definity look unlikey runners, Den of Iniquity and Frankie Anson I doubt would have the class. Blazing Bailey is up against it off his new mark but he will no doubt run a very solid race. Skippers Brigg I would have question marks about the trip and with quick ground it's unlikely his trainer will let him take his chance also.
Wolf Moon come out top but he's 6lbs out of the weights and also has a 5lb penalty to carry; so he'll have to run off a 11lb higher mark than he was initially allocated for the race. However, he has great course form and seems to be slowly getting his act together to could be of interest if he creeps into the race. Carole's Legacy is also interesting but she's a bit higher up in the weight than a usual winner and also still holds an entry in the Mares Hurdle.
Selection: Adams Island - 0.5pt E/W NRNB 33/1
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| Adams Island Chasing Home Captain Chris |
The horse I've come down on at the prices is Adams Island who should be roughly half the price in my book. Being a pointer he was always going to come into his own over fences but started of well in a National Hunt Flat race winning by 13l after being well supported throughout the day. Then on his first hurdle start he beat Aiteen Thirtythree by 6l who of course has gone on to much better things since. Following a few disappointing hurdle starts (went off favourite against Wymott in a grade 2 on only his second start) he was sent over fences this season.
He has looked progressive and opened up with a 12l defeat at Aintree. However, that was only over 20f and when stepped up to 3 miles next time he showed his true colours winning by 6l. Next time out he ran another great race at Exeter (proving he can handle a Undulating track) being only beaten 5l by Wymott off level weights (if you add riders claim back on). The form of the race has worked out very well with Wymott, Shalimar Fromentro and Definity franking the form since.
Since the turn of the year he's had 3 starts. The first was at Doncaster when he beat Mostly Bob giving him 6lbs. Mostly Bob has won over C+D since in handicap pointing to Adams Island run being worth something around the 140 mark. The third Lake Legend has also won since and the useful On Borrowed Wings was miles behind in 4th. He was then upped to open handicap and was made 4/1f in the race Blazing Bailey won at Ffos Las, that day he showed up well for a long way before his jumping let him down. The experience should have done him the world of good and he came back with a nice performance in the Pendil behind Captain Chris. Giving Captain Chris 4lbs he was only beaten 13l which in the context of a handicap off 133 is pretty solid form. The race was also over 20f and stepped back up to 24f there has to be more improvement to come. He looks genuinely progressive and is definitely going the right way (especially if his jumping holds up).
Also it must be noted his 5lb conditional is likely to be back on which will mean he will run of a feather weight of 10st 1. It must be noted conditionals have a good record at the Festival, for example off the top of my head Buena Vista and Great Endeavour won with riders taking weight off last year, as did Something Wells the year before. The one worry is it is thought he may need things to go his own way which he is unlikely to get but in the hope his jumping is improving the price of 33/1 seems value for a horse with form tieing in with Captain Chris and Wymott. Novices have a great record in this race (3 of last 7 winners) yet he seems to have gone relatively unnoticed. Also the moving of the 2nd last into the home straight this year could also be seen as a slight positive for front runners as it should suit them more, as shown by Little Josh in this years Paddy Power.
Another one worth considering at a big price would be CRESCENT ISLAND. If you took out his last run he'd score the necessary 14+. The reason I say this is that he hasn't gone well RH before and has infact run out twice. Back to a LH track he looks sure to improve. The form of his win this year has been working out impeccably and too he has placed at the festival before when 3rd in the 2009 Jewsons (7 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 4 at the festival before). He still has multiple entries though.
Friday, 4 March 2011
Cross Country Chase? All you need is experience.
The banks races have often been seen as an Enda Bolger benefit race, but over recent seasons the tide has been turning against him and his brigade. One reason that could be put forward for this is now horses from other trainers have gained more experience round the course and hence are much more suited to the unique test it provides. Below are the RPRs for the more frequent competitors in these kind of races. The RPRs WITHOUT brackets are those achieved at Cheltenham, whereas, those WITH are for the Punchestown's banks course. The most recent rating is on the right.
Garde Champetre - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
Lacdoudal - 136, 140
Sizing Australia - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
L'Ami - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Silver Birch - 137, (131), 150, (132), 114, (126), 87
Drombeag - (111), 135, 129, (131), PU, 132, (122)
Dix Villez - (120), 136, 112, UR
Native Jack - (127), 134, (71), 130, (115), 77, 134
Freyneys Well - (113), 121, 128, (123), (126), 137, (98), 137, (137), (128), 125
Heads Onthe Ground - (119), 122, (106), (141), 145, (137), (145), (127), 100, (67)............
Wonderkid - (103), 116, (99), (PU), 134, 107, (134), (124), PU, 93
Royal Auclair - 129, 124, 133, 144, 119
Interestingly also the great Spot Thedifference unseated first time out over a banks course after 'virtually refusing'. He of course went on to master the cross country course at Cheltenham and perhaps managed to continue defying the handicapper (like Garde Champetre) because of how much improvement each horse can make after an additional run over the unique course. The fact that even course specialists such as Spot Thedifference and Garde Champetre both failed to complete the course first time out for Enda Bolger means I couldn't back one of his first time out in such an event (Arabella Boy).
As can be seen from most of these horses there is usually a pretty uphill trend as they gain more experience. So what does that mean for this year's renewal? Below are the main contenders and their respective RPRs.
Garde Champetre (9/2f) - Fell, (122), 147, (133), 145, 154, 163, (143), 144 162 165, 152
L'Ami (13/2) - 130, 149, (133), 157, (145), 157, (144), (138)
Sizing Australia (8/1) - 125, 137, 122, (115), 143
A New Story (14/1) - 128, (123), 101, (124), 131, 141
Maljimar (14/1) - 144
King Johns Castle (14/1) - (126)
One Cool Cookie (16/1) -(UR)
Another Jewel (20/1) - (135), 135, (132)
Arabella Boy, Poker De Sivola, Gullible Gordon, Northern Alliance, Fair Along and Dream Alliance - All never run.
As I have said experience is key so I would more or less rule out any of the last group. This is backed up by the fact that the last 21 winners of Cheltenham X-C races have all run over a banks course before.
For me looking at the above results the stand out bet is Maljimar at 14/1. He managed to run an RPR of 144 on his first run at the course, which is absolutely massive given the above statistics. It is very likely (though I haven't checked every race) that Maljimar's run was the best ever debut by a horse over a banks course on strict ratings. He jumped very well in the main the day bar a few errors, one of which was at the last which cost him valuable momentum.
For that race he is 8lbs better off with Garde Champetre for a 3l defeat, and a massive 13lbs better off with Sizing Australia for a 2.25l defeat. Yet both are much shorter in the betting even though on that day they both already had experience over the course. Since then much hasn't gone right for him but as a consequence he has dropped 8lbs in the weights to a very generous 134. In truth he's only had 3 runs, twice over the Grand National fences (fell both times, though departed at 22nd in GN going very well), and then one run on New Year's Day over the regular obstacles. However, it must be noted at the time Nick William's horses had been badly held up by the weather so this run can be forgiven. He is 11 now but he is not past it for this kind of race with the winners of it before being aged 12, 12, 10, 9, 10 and 12. Also he's a lightly raced 11 year old with 24 runs to his name, compared to 12yo Garde Champetre who has had 39 starts.
At 14/1 I think he has to make massive E/W (4 places) value especially with the Bolger pair of L'ami and Garde Champetre not looking great this season. As an alternative I would pick Another Jewel, but I really do think Maljimar is a massive price at 14/1 and must be taken if possible.
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