The Statistics
1) RPRs
a) Shown best RPR over fences this season
b) Improving RPRs throughout the season (Allow a novice with fluctuations)
The obvious reason for this is because we need an improving horse to win such a competitive handicap. So either I'd look for a horse with improving RPRs or a novice.
2) Age
a) Age 7 - 10
6 year olds have a shocking record in the race as the stamina test is usually too much for them at such an early stage in their careers. Also those that are aged over 10 are likely to be very exposed and so not open to much improvement.
3) Weight/ OR
a) OR 143 or below (10 of the last 10 winners, 15 of the last 20 placed horses)
b) 11st 3 or below, pref 10st 12 or below (10/10, 16/20)
To win at the festival you'd usually have to have around 10lbs in hand over the handicapper. It's easier for a horse to do this further down the weights. For example a horse rated 150+ hasn't won in 28 years. 6 of the first 7 home last year were rated 143 or below.
4) Runs
a) 2-4 runs season (unless novice)
b) Max 11 Chase starts
c) Max 5 three mile chase finishes
You want something that hasn't hard a hard season and is also relatively unexposed over the larger obstacles and hence the handicapper hasn't had a full chance to get to grips with them.
5) Course
a) Cheltenham experience is a plus, though not necessarily good form. The last 10 winners had the following form over the course 8470/021129/236/22P40/-/P4F/1/3PF03/5213/-/.
6) Distance
a) Won over 24f+
b) Best RPR over 24f+
Horses stepping up in trip don't have a great record in the race as such a strong run 3 mile race at the festival isn't the ideal contest to try a horse in at the trip for the first time.
7) Wins
a) Won current season
b) Won a handicap unless a novice
Obviously you want a horse in great form, if it can win earlier in the season it probably can't win in the cauldron of the Cheltenham Festival.
8) Season form
a) Placed in class A or won Class 2 (Unless a novice)
b) Top 3 LTO, preferably won
You want form in top races, not many horses graduate from run of the mill class 3/4 handicaps to Cheltenham festival winners
9) Experience
a) 1st/2nd Season Chaser
Linked to number of runs over fences, you of course want a horse who's still relatively unexposed.
10) Field Size
a) Won in 16+ field
It is likely we'll be faced by a maximum field of 24 for the race and so you want a horse who's shown they can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field before.
The Results
This is an extremely strong stats race with 9 of the last 10 winners scoring 14+ out of 17. The only failure was 50/1 winner Joe's Edge who had dropped quickly down the weights that season and was running in the Gold Cup 12 months previously. There's nothing of his calibre low down the weights this year so I'd definitely be looking for something that meets a score of 14+.
17 - Wolf Moon
16 - Definity
15 - Skippers Brigg, Adams Island
14 - Blazing Bailey, Carole's Legacy, Quantitativeeasing, Den of Iniquity, Frankies Anson
Quantitiveeasing and Definity look unlikey runners, Den of Iniquity and Frankie Anson I doubt would have the class. Blazing Bailey is up against it off his new mark but he will no doubt run a very solid race. Skippers Brigg I would have question marks about the trip and with quick ground it's unlikely his trainer will let him take his chance also.
Wolf Moon come out top but he's 6lbs out of the weights and also has a 5lb penalty to carry; so he'll have to run off a 11lb higher mark than he was initially allocated for the race. However, he has great course form and seems to be slowly getting his act together to could be of interest if he creeps into the race. Carole's Legacy is also interesting but she's a bit higher up in the weight than a usual winner and also still holds an entry in the Mares Hurdle.
Selection: Adams Island - 0.5pt E/W NRNB 33/1
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| Adams Island Chasing Home Captain Chris |
The horse I've come down on at the prices is Adams Island who should be roughly half the price in my book. Being a pointer he was always going to come into his own over fences but started of well in a National Hunt Flat race winning by 13l after being well supported throughout the day. Then on his first hurdle start he beat Aiteen Thirtythree by 6l who of course has gone on to much better things since. Following a few disappointing hurdle starts (went off favourite against Wymott in a grade 2 on only his second start) he was sent over fences this season.
He has looked progressive and opened up with a 12l defeat at Aintree. However, that was only over 20f and when stepped up to 3 miles next time he showed his true colours winning by 6l. Next time out he ran another great race at Exeter (proving he can handle a Undulating track) being only beaten 5l by Wymott off level weights (if you add riders claim back on). The form of the race has worked out very well with Wymott, Shalimar Fromentro and Definity franking the form since.
Since the turn of the year he's had 3 starts. The first was at Doncaster when he beat Mostly Bob giving him 6lbs. Mostly Bob has won over C+D since in handicap pointing to Adams Island run being worth something around the 140 mark. The third Lake Legend has also won since and the useful On Borrowed Wings was miles behind in 4th. He was then upped to open handicap and was made 4/1f in the race Blazing Bailey won at Ffos Las, that day he showed up well for a long way before his jumping let him down. The experience should have done him the world of good and he came back with a nice performance in the Pendil behind Captain Chris. Giving Captain Chris 4lbs he was only beaten 13l which in the context of a handicap off 133 is pretty solid form. The race was also over 20f and stepped back up to 24f there has to be more improvement to come. He looks genuinely progressive and is definitely going the right way (especially if his jumping holds up).
Also it must be noted his 5lb conditional is likely to be back on which will mean he will run of a feather weight of 10st 1. It must be noted conditionals have a good record at the Festival, for example off the top of my head Buena Vista and Great Endeavour won with riders taking weight off last year, as did Something Wells the year before. The one worry is it is thought he may need things to go his own way which he is unlikely to get but in the hope his jumping is improving the price of 33/1 seems value for a horse with form tieing in with Captain Chris and Wymott. Novices have a great record in this race (3 of last 7 winners) yet he seems to have gone relatively unnoticed. Also the moving of the 2nd last into the home straight this year could also be seen as a slight positive for front runners as it should suit them more, as shown by Little Josh in this years Paddy Power.
Another one worth considering at a big price would be CRESCENT ISLAND. If you took out his last run he'd score the necessary 14+. The reason I say this is that he hasn't gone well RH before and has infact run out twice. Back to a LH track he looks sure to improve. The form of his win this year has been working out impeccably and too he has placed at the festival before when 3rd in the 2009 Jewsons (7 of the last 13 winners have been in the first 4 at the festival before). He still has multiple entries though.
Great write-up.
ReplyDeleteWolf Moon has multiple Festival entries so wherever he runs, take note.
Carole's Legacy looks to have been aimed at this by Henderson as, despite the entry, she wont run in the Mares hurdle.
All the best.