Day 1 Preview

Sorry I can't go into more detail but below are my brief overview of tomorrow's races.

Supreme Novices Hurdle

The curtain raiser is of course the Supreme Novices. Whichever way I look at this race I always seem to come to conclusion that Cue Card is more than a fair price at the 11/4 (BOG). For me personally he is a totally different proposition to Dunguib and Cousin Vinny. He's already shown he can jump and his form is rock solid with the older horses when he supposedly wasn't even 100% fit. Take him to get you off to a flyer even if the break of 94 days is a bit of a worry. You can almost come down to him on default with big worries for most of the field.  Sprinter Sacre (experience),  Zaidpour, Magen's Star, Marsh Warbler (ground) and he holds Al Ferof and Dunraven Storm on all known form. Recession Proof is still only rated 137 by the handicapper which leaves him with 21lbs to find still. Spirit Son is respected but at the prices I'd much rather take a horse who's been there done that before.

3pt Win Cue Card 11/4

Arkle

Another tight race and one that I wouldn't have to big a bet in at the current prices. I've backed Medermit at 9/2 and it's debatable how much mileage there is in his price at around 3/1. Finians Rainbow didn't impress me or many others last time and Ghizao I think will just lack the class to win such a race. Similar applies to Realt Dubh and Captain Chris needs to go right handed. Rock Noir was another horse I've mentioned in this blog previously but at the prices now I'd leave him alone due to ground/jumping errors. Medermit is bomb proof and at 3/1 is worth a small investment if you haven't backed him already.

1pt Win Medermit 3/1

Spinal Handicap Chase

If you haven't seen below I've done a big write up and I'm still more than happy with Adam's Island who was advised at 33s (top price 18s). Wolf Moon came out near the top of stats and has scraped into the race but the price has totally gone on him at 16s now. One that interests me near the top at a big price is Fair Along. He runs off a much lower mark than hurdlers and ran a nice race last time when 3rd behind Noland and What A Friend last time. However, the slow pace didn't suit him last time and he finished well. He has a great record on the Old Course and at 25/1 I think he makes massive each way appeal. Also the ground and big field will be right up his street.

0.5pt E/W Adams Island 33/1
0.5pt E/W Fair Along 25/1

Champion Hurdle

Another race that I've got a big write up on below. Menorah I can't have as to be honest I don't think his form is up too much and he is still inexperience for such a test. Peddlers Cross also doesn't strike me as a Champion Hurdler (see below). However, I am coming around more to Hurricane Fly and as many people say if there is one super star in the field it is likely that it will be him. For me the three to concentrate on are Khyber Kim (only one I've backed so far ante post), Dunguib and Hurricane Fly. Khyber Kim's price has gone and I wouldn't touch him now at 12/1 considering he's now getting on and had a poor first run this year (even if there were excuses).

Now Hurricane Fly has actually made the race I think that if he handles the track and occasion he should win. However, Dunguib seems to have been forgotten and perhaps he can spring a minor shock. He was only 2l behind Menorah last year when taken very wide and there's no reason why he should be 3x the price in my book. He had had a very hard season last year before the spring festival and comes into the race much fresher this time. Of course jumping is a worry but I reckon he's worth a small bet at 10/1

Hurricane Fly 1pt Win 4/1
Dunguib 0.5pt Win 10/1

Cross Country Chase

As can be seen from my post below on the cross country I'm mega keen on Maljimar, although I said back then 14/1 should be taken, as a bet I didn't officially advise it. So to be fair when calculating my results I'll only take his price as the 8/1 now available.  However, I still think at 8s he's a more than fair E/W price and although I won't be topping up personally if you haven't got any on I'd advise still having a bet. Since I've placed my bet it has come out connections are very keen on him and that he has schooled superbly. I can't see him being out of the frame with a clear round

2pt E/W Maljimar 8/1

Mares Hurdle

Quevega should win but can't be advised at odds on. No bet.

Centenary Novice Handicap Chase

Another race where I took an early view. This time on Definity, however, like Khyber Kim I think the value has gone in his price at 7/1.

One I'm keen on though at a massive price is Glenstall Abbey who has a JP plot written all over him. He has some very good hurdle form firstly. He only finished a length behind Bertie's Dream and 7l behind Donnas Palm. The run however that most takes my eye is his win at Navan. He beat Quito De La Roque by 3l giving it 7lbs (won a grade 1 since) and third was 20l behind Bostons Angel (won 2 grade 1s since). Since going chasing he has won 2 out of 3, winning his first two on decent ground before coming 3rd as favourite in a Grade 3 on his final chase start (softer groud). Last time out he ran in a hurdle and he was never in the race at all. He is usually up there with the pace but this time he was held up and gave the outside to noone. He stayed on well beating tiring horses in the straight but he wouldn't have had a hard race at all. He has a great record fresh (if you take out his 'schooling' run last time he is) and he makes appeal at 33/1 each way.

Another one that took my eye was American Trilogy even if Nicholls' isn't keen on him. He's got his handicapper mark going right handed and he is much better this way round.

0.5pt E/W Glenstall Abbey 33/1
0.5pt E/W American Trilogy 18/1

-4.5pts for day... Would have been up but for a late non runner to make XC only top 3 and not 4!