Experience and Age
Experience is something that I feel has been underplayed in the run up to this year's race and personally I feel it is one of the most, if not the most important factor when considering a Champion Hurdle winner. The Champion Hurdle is a unique test with the finest two mile hurdlers from both sides of the seas pitting their talents against each other at an often ferocious pace. It is a much different test to either running around with a good a bunch of inexperienced novices in the Supreme or in a small field prep with a suspect pace.
The age based view is that five year olds are 1-85 in the race since 1985. However, I think far more important is experience which is usually closely linked to age. Katchit has been the one exception to the five year old year in the past 25 years, this can probably be explained by the fact that he'd had gained a lot of experience with 16 flat starts and was also very heavily raced for a five year old over hurdles with 12 runs.
So looking at it from an experience point of view the last 10 winners had all had at least 15 career starts (8 of them over 21). Also the only winner to have had less than 10 starts over hurdles was Sublimity in the 2007 renewal.
This leads to big questions mark over Menorah and Peddlers Cross.
C+D form and Topspeeds
As I've mentioned the Champion Hurdle is a unique test and the fact that 7/11 winners had run in the race before shows this. Outside of those Katchit and Rooster Booster were course specialists and had both put very good TS (157 and 154 respectively) over the C+D, so it was clear they were suited by the conditions of the race.
8 of the last 10 winners had put up a TS figure of 150+ over C+D, so this is also one of my first ports of call when looking for a Champion Hurdle winner. Below are the market contenders who have run over C+D and the respective TSs
| Khyber Kim | 165 |
| Binocular | 163 |
| Walkon | 153 |
| Menorah | 149 |
| Starluck | 149 |
| Dunguib | 141 |
| Silviniaco Conti | 139 |
| Oscar Whisky | 139 |
| Soldatino | 137 |
As can be seen the only qualifiers are Khyber Kim, Binocular and Walkon. However, perhaps Menorah can be excused as he clearly loves the course and is 3/3 over C+D. The fact that Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross have never run over C+D has to be a negative to their name.
Grinders vs Travellers
This is something that first came to my attention when reading Paul Jones' very useful Cheltenham Festival betting guide last year. As he says punters generally as he say prefer the potential superstars over the solid less flashy contenders and so value often arises. Grinders going by the results in the past have a better record especially when the going comes up softer than G/S. Last year however, it was two travellers, Binocular and Khyber Kim who came to fore. One reason for this could be the moving of the final flight to the winning line which would have aided their cause, also we must remember that the ground was quicker than normal on the opening day last year.
The Main Contenders
Binocular - 4.3
The most solid horse in the whole field who has experience and obviously excels at the course with a strong pace. Trained by the master 2 mile hurdle trainer Nicky Henderson he is the most likely winner and should take all the beating. He was given a very easy ride by McCoy first time out this year behind Peddlers Cross and in fact jumped to the front at the last before fitness told. Back to somewhere near his best last time he put up a polished display with his electric jumping on show to all. The only problem is it is hard to see much mileage being left in his price compared to be what it will be on the day. All the other market contenders have big fan bases and for that reason his price should remain pretty steady and it's hard to see him being shorter than 5/2f on the day. The one way his price has potential to go is out if he is beaten by Peddlers Cross at Sandown. However, this personally wouldn't be much of a worry as it is likely to be run not to suit him and it is unlikely Nicky Henderson will have him fully wound up. It must be remembered Punjabi and Binocular both ran relatively lacklustre races in their preps for him before taking the Champion Hurdle a short while later.
Hurricane Fly - 5.8
The likeliest contender to the throne but seems to represent little value. One worry is obviously what a fragile horse he is and their is plenty of time for him still to miss the race. He's missed the last 2 festivals and in fact he even had a bit of a blip over Christmas with a cut leg. I'd much rather take 4/1 on the day than the 9/2 available now on Betfair. Also what has been noted in his last two races is his slight tendency to jump to the right. One forumite has noted that this can often be an indication of favouring a particular foreleg and if he is feeling paining in either one this is likely to be exaggerated at Cheltenham on quicker ground than he's used to. The big negative is of course he has no course form.
Other slight worries would be the quicker pace, as although the pace seemed fair at the weekend he still registered a relatively low top speed figure in the 120s. Also although some people reject this point totally he's by Montjeu who's yet to sire a Cheltenham winner and whose progency often flatten out when they reach the hill. Also the fact that Ruby Walsh might take the ride, strange though it seems, could be a slight negative as he's only ridden him once since May 2008. For these reasons the 9/2 available now seems a poor price.
Menorah - 6.6
The big caveat for him is as I have already mentioned he is still a very inexperienced horse when it comes to Champion Hurdle winners, with only 8 hurdle starts and 9 lifetime starts. This was shown in Supreme Hurdle last year with his jink coming to two out. This year he has obviously improved, but his jumping was a bit sticky in places in the Greatwood and this can't happen if he's to stand a chance in this. It can also be argued he's beaten nothing of Champion Hurdle class yet. In his novice career his big scalps were Bellvano, Get Me Out of Here and Dunguib - who have all shown nothing so far to suggest their up to Championship quality. This year he beat Bothy and a bunch of other second season hurdlers in the Greatwood, before beating two very inexperienced horses in the shape of Cue Card and Silvianco Conti in the Bula. Another negative for him is that the last 16 winners all ran in the same calendar year. It was also said that he had a potential chasing career this season which doesn't fill you with confidence. For me he's an unlikely winner and hence the 11/2 available is a poor price.
Peddlers Cross - 6.8
Like Menorah short on experience with only 6 lifetime starts. He's dropping back from a novice career over further like multiple winners Istabraq and Hardy Eustace but they had far more experience than him at his point of their respective careers. Looking at the Newbury run as well I'd take Binocular to turn around the form, and the second that day Starluck was comfortably put in his place by the champion next time. The fact that he's only run 6 times to date and that he's never run over C+D alone means that his price of 11/2 in what looks a competitive renewal should not be touched either. He obviously falls into the 'grinder' mold, though on quick ground I just can't see him getting Binocular off the bridle. First time out this year to my eye Binocular traveled all over him before blowing up. Also it must be remembered Celestial Halo is a very good horses over 2 miles on ground thats not soft, going into the race last year he'd posted 4 RPRs of at least 165 (higher than anything PC has ever achieved) over the trip and yet he could get not get Binocular over the bridle or nowhere near him.
Others
Briefly I see it hard to see why Dunguib and Oscar's Whiskey should turn around the form with Menorah. Also the former has had a very interrupted campaign this year which would be a worry and the latter is still very inexperienced for such a test. Mille Chief is another one with major experience worries with only 6 hurdle starts and 11 in his career and coupled with his lack of C+D form the 16/1 available wouldn't tempt me one bit for a horse beaten off handicaps mark of 136 in his first two starts this year. Khyber Kim would be tempting on the day if he turns up at a big price. His first run this year can perhaps be forgiven as T-D horses are often a bit in and out at this time of year. However, there is now talk of him being aimed at the World Hurdle and it's hard to see where the improvement would come as a 9 year old. On the plus side though he was a clear 2nd last year and perhaps softer ground could bring him closer to Binocular. One to keep an eye on.
The Dark Horse
The one who seems massively overpriced to me at this stage is Walkon. With C+D form he is 3rd in the TS table behind the short priced favourite and a 9 year old. However, at 6 he still has massive potential to improve. He's had 14 starts, which is one short of the 15 (Should have prep in Totesport Trophy in fortnight though) I required earlier, but still way more than market principles Menorah and Peddlers Cross, and at 50/1 on BF he can be forgiven.
He obviously has a liking for the course and his Triumph form has been franked since by Zaynar, Mourad and Starluck. Zaynar traded as favourite for most of the season in last year's Champion Hurdle and through Zaynar and Starluck he has between 6 and 9lbs to find with Binocular based on their runs in last years Champion Hurdle. He opened up nicely this year when second at Ascot over the weekend off a mark of 148 in a very competitive race, showing his engine still remained in tact. Also connections said after the race he ran much better than they expected him to and he looks sure to come on plenty for the race. Alan King's horses have been coming only very nicely for their first run this year with Karabak, Mille Chief, West End Rocker and Blazing Bailey for example coming on 6,19,8 and 36lbs respectively on RPRs for their first runs. This all gives a very big indication he can runs to mark at least in the mid to high 160s and so his price seems massive value at the moment. He's goes on any ground and it could also be said the race could be run to suit with the McCain connections making to look it a tough test to suit their horse too.
No comments:
Post a Comment