One thing that struck me at the festival last year was how well horses who have done well at the festival before come back and perform well again, not just in the big races but in the handicaps too. For example, last year both Pause and Clause and Buena Vista came back after placing the year before to taste victory 12 months later.
Last year Ogee ran a very respectable 3rd in what was then known as the WillHill off a 2lb lower mark. However, there are obvious reasons why he can improve on that performance. Firstly he made a bad error early on that day which knocked him back through the field. Also he was only a novice. Pause and Clause also ran in open company as a novice performing well, before coming back and winning a year later. Since then it hasn't all gone to plan but at Aintree he was all but brought down which ruined his chance. Also that day it must be noted he was made favourite to beat horses such as Burton Port. Then first time out this year he ran a better race than his finishing position before toiling in ground which would have been too tacky for him.
Interestingly I believe he was initially entered in the Gold Cup this year so connections obviously think he's progressed this year and too he was entered in the AON chase overnight before Newbury was abandoned. A grade 1 winner over hurdles who looks to be going the right way he surely has to run a massive race if he turns up. At 25/1 NRNB with bet365 he rated a good each way bet.
Arcalis - 50/1 Coral Cup
Yes he is 11 now, but he still has shown this season that he maintains a lot of his ability and besides Mr McGoldrick managed to run a massive race as 13 year old last year. A two time grade 1 winner including one at the festival, ground is now key to him these days and the quicker it is the better it is for him. He's had two runs so far this season, both stepping up to 3 miles. It's looked possibly both times that he just didn't quite stay. In fact first time out this year he was only beaten 5l by Big Bucks and his jockey said that for a while he thought he was going to pick him up after the last. Through the rest of the field that day (Duc De Regniere, Duke of Lucca, Kayf Aramis) I think it's fair to say he probably ran to a mark of 150, yet at the moment he is only rated 138.
On adjusted RPRs I've worked out (I think) he's miles clear of most of the field with an RPR of 13lbs in excess of his OR. Compare this to Aegean Dawn (1lb) and For Non Stop (5lbs) and his price seems massive value.
Also it must be noted that EVERY season he's improved on any performance he's put in that season at the Cheltenham Festival. Look at his RPRs earlier that season and in the Festival.
2004 - 2005: 143 to 146
2005 - 2006: 158 to 161
2006 - 2007: 152 to 157
2007 - 2008: Injured
2008 - 2009: 124 to 144
2009 - 2010: 118 to 138.
2010 - 2011: 151 to ?
If he can run anything around around 150+ he'll very tough to keep out of the frame and perhaps even win. He stayed on from the clouds in the county last year (2lb lower mark) where the trip looked way too short for him and with this being his only festival entry it's surely the aim and 50/1 should be taken.
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