Horses to keep any eye on in the run up to the festival: Novice Hurdlers

Below are a list of six horses that I have compiled that are worth keeping a close eye on in the run up to the festival to see if they can develop into serious contenders for the championship races. They are all relatively unhyped horses who, in my opinion, have put up better performances than either the press or bookmakers have given them credit for.

1. Gibb River - Supreme Novices (25/1 VC, SJ)

An above average sort on the flat who was rated 85 at his highest and ran at Royal Ascot at one point. Since then he has been moved to Nicky Henderson. He's won 2 out of 2, with the most impressive performance coming last time at Plumpton under a penalty. They went off a real gallop in the race and many struggled to get into it. By the end of it he had won easily by 7 lengths to Mr Muddle (who was recieving 17lbs). Third was Extremely So (beaten 10l get 7lbs) who had seemed a nice sort when winning first time out at Folkestone at big odds, those 3 pulling a further 15l clear of the field. He was then entered up at the 5 day declarations for the Tolworth last weekend, but was pulled out at the overnight decs, with the stable running Minella Class instead. Minella Class duly bolted up as is now 12s for both the Supreme and the Neptune. Gibb River was presumably pulled out because of the ground, having shown better form on a quicker surface on the flat. It most be a positive that the stable were willing to enter him into the race alongside Minella Class, meaning they probably think him to be of roughly a similar class.

2. For Non Stop - Neptune (89-1 BF), Alber Bartlett (39-1 BF)

Slightly less exposed than Gibb River having already ploughed his trade in handicaps and having already run in a Grade 1. Since joining Nick Williams he hasn't looked back. He first bolted up at Chepstow in what Nick Mordin described as a pattern class time. He then stepped up in class at the Paddy Power meeting at Cheltenham. He could only come 2nd to Grand Crus, but since then that horse of course has bolted up again and is now rated 32lbs higher (158) with the Cleeve hurdle next on its agenda. That race has had many winners come out of it. For Non Stop was given an RPR of 140 for that, but it could be argued given the exploits of the rest of the field it should be a bit higher. Over the same C+D the Neptune in recent years has alternated between very classy renewals (Peddlars, MDH and Nicanor) to the not so (Fiveforthree, Massinis Maguire and No Refuge).

This years looks like it could be falling into the latter category, with no obvious superstar around at the moment. In those 3 renewals the winners all achieved RPRs in to the high 140s. The fact For Non Stop has already achieved an RPR of 140(+) at an early stage in the season over the C+D suggests that his price is way to big. Since then, he was backed into favourite for the Challow Hurdle. He travelled well before tiring late on into 4th. However, it should be noted that Nick Williams has said in the build up to that he missed a vital bit of work, so there is obviously plenty to come from that. Interestingly, Nick Mordin suggested he might be better over 3 miles, so there is every chance he could step up in trip for the Albert Bartlett.

3. Gagewell Flyer - Neptune (40-1 SJ)

An average sort in bumpers for Willie Mullins achieving an RPR of 110 in all 3 starts. Since the beginning of the season he hasn't looked back though with 2 wins. He won nicely first time out over 2 miles, before being stepped up in trip for a grade 2 at Naas last week. This time, he was far more impressive and could have won by much further than the official distance of 4l. The second, Fists of Fury, had won first time out before coming 2nd in a grade 3 next time and the third, Pineau De Re had finished second to Zaidpout in a grade 1 last time. Both suggesting this is a strong bit of form. An uncomplicated front runner, he looks sure to put up a bold performance wherever he turns up next.

4. Sonofvic - Albert Barlett (25-1 365, Tote, 31-1 BF)

Trained by Paul Nicholls, he is a half brother to the stable's Forest Pennant, and a full brother to Aiteen Thirtythree. He's only had one run so far when winning at Chepstow in November. He won very easily and the form has since been franked by the placed horses. Ohio Gold, is a solid sort and was only beaten 3l by 150 rated chaser Ballabriggs this weekend. More importantly, the second Teaforthree, Won well next time out before being beaten only 3l in a grade 2 at Cheltenham in December. Sonofvic hasn't been seen since but that's not surprising as the trainer said after that he needs time between his races and wouldn't be out to around christmas. Both his siblings improved when stepped up to 3 miles, so there is every chance he could do so. However, if he goes to Cheltenham you'd imagine he'd only have one more start which would leave him very inexperience. Also his siblings were both backwards sorts and both have missed Cheltenham Festivals, so there is every chance connections may wish to do the same with him.

5.  Oscars Well - Albert Barlett (16-1 freely availbale, 17-1 BF), Neptune (20-1 freely available, 22-1 BF)

Has already achieved an RPR of 148, which as I have already mentioned is enough to win a 'poor' Neptune. Since stepping up in trip he's won 2/2 over hurdles. Winning nicely at Punchestown before stepping up to Grade 1 company at Navan. This time he was even more impressive, scoring in a nice time easily by 8l. Second was Sweet Shock, who won a handicap hurdle of 119 the time before (now 125), suggesting this was a 140+ performance. The third, Fully Funded, beaten 19l had won a Grade 2 hurdle easily last time over C+D, suggesting also Oscars Well is a proper sort. On that form I think he should be near the top of the markets he's priced up in. However, the one worry would be all his form is on softer ground than he is likely to meet at the festival if he takes up an engagement.

6. Mossey Joe - Albert Bartlett (25-1 365, PP, SJ, 21-1 BF)

Put up an astonishing performance at Cork when winning a Grade 3 in mid December. After pulling hard early on he still won by 9l without being anywhere near extended. All the horses he beat were no mugs with 4 winners behind him. Since then the second, Fists of Fury, was beaten by a shorter distance by Gagewell Flyer in a grade 2. Also amazingly, his trainer said he wasn't even fully fit yet. He then ran 16 days later behind Mourad at Leopardstown when stepped up to open class. He once again travelled very well before finding nothing. However, given his trainer said he wasn't fit 16 days previously it's unlikely he would have been then with the cold snap and perhaps his previous race had taken far more out of him than before. If that run is forgiven, then he is one of the best prospects in the novice hurdle devision at the moment. One thing that I particularly like about him is his jumping which is usually foot perfect as he skips over them very quickly. Having won already on good ground in a hunter chase, he is sure to play a big part if he runs at the festival.